**USD/CAD Technical Analysis Report — August 14, 2025**
*Based on original analysis by FinanceFeeds*
The USD/CAD currency pair has recently experienced increased volatility due to a combination of macroeconomic data releases, shifting interest rate expectations, and fluctuations in crude oil prices. As of August 14, 2025, traders are focused on a range of indicators to determine the next directional move for the pair. This report provides a comprehensive technical analysis of USD/CAD, supported by recent fundamental factors, chart patterns, and sentiment indicators.
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### Overview of Recent Market Behavior
USD/CAD has been trading in a moderately bullish channel over the past month, lifted by renewed strength in the US dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy. The pair is currently hovering around the key 1.3600 resistance zone after making a steady climb from July’s lows near 1.3320.
Several broader macroeconomic dynamics are influencing this trend:
– **US Dollar Strength**: The US dollar has regained its footing in early August due to hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and stronger-than-expected labor market data.
– **Oil Prices and CAD Correlation**: Crude oil prices, a key driver of the Canadian dollar, have seen mixed moves recently. WTI crude hovers around $78 per barrel, and its consolidation has limited CAD appreciation.
– **Interest Rate Expectations**:
– **Federal Reserve**: The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 5.25%–5.50% through the remainder of 2025, with inflation beginning to cool but still not returning to the 2% target.
– **Bank of Canada (BoC)**: The BoC has signaled a pause in tightening after hiking earlier in the year, citing risks to economic growth and household debt concerns.
Together, these factors suggest a subtle balance between bullish and bearish forces, with technical levels becoming increasingly important for short-term trading decisions.
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### Key Technical Indicators and Chart Analysis
**1. Trend and Momentum**
On the daily chart:
– The pair is currently in an upward-sloping channel from the July 2025 lows.
– Prices have remained steadily above the 50-day moving average, which lies around 1.3480, acting as dynamic support.
– The 100-day EMA is now near 1.3410, with the longer-term 200-day EMA around 1.3310, indicating a broader bullish momentum.
**2. RSI and MACD Reading**
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands around 64, indicating near overbought territory but not signaling a reversal yet.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains above the signal line and zero, supporting continued bullish momentum. However, the histogram has started to flatten, suggesting the bullish drive may be losing strength.
**3. Key Support and Resistance Levels**
Identifying significant support and resistance levels helps highlight potential reversal, breakout, or pullback zones.
– **Immediate Resistance**:
– 1.3600 – Psychological resistance and recent swing high.
– 1.3675 – Year-to-date high reached in May 2025.
– 1.3750 – Next resistance if 1.3675 breaks convincingly, supported by historical price action from October 2023.
– **Support Levels**:
– 1.3500 – Minor support and mid-channel trendline.
– 1.3420 – Previously a resistance level, now acting as support.
– 1.3320 – Key support and July’s low; a breakdown here could signal trend reversal.
– 1.3265 – 200-day moving average and next support in a bearish scenario.
**4. Fibonacci Retracement**
– A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the May 2025 high (~1.367
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