**GBP/USD Daily Outlook: June 13, 2024**
*Based on original analysis by ActionForex.com*
**Overview**
The GBP/USD currency pair has continued its recent upward momentum, attracting significant attention from traders analyzing its next moves. Sterling has shown resilience against the US Dollar amid shifting expectations after recent macroeconomic releases. This article takes a comprehensive look at where the pair stands now, the technical factors influencing price, and the potential scenarios to be aware of for upcoming sessions.
**Current Market Context**
Sterling has advanced against the greenback following a combination of UK economic resilience and softer US inflation figures, which have weighed on the US Dollar. GBP/USD has recently tested crucial resistance points, supported by:
– A softer-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, tempering aggressive Federal Reserve tightening expectations
– UK labor market data that paints a mixed but relatively robust picture, reducing urgency for imminent Bank of England rate cuts
– Broader risk-on sentiment in global markets, aiding currencies like the pound
While fundamentals set the backdrop, technical analysis continues to provide key signals for the pair’s immediate direction.
**Technical Analysis Summary**
GBP/USD began Thursday’s session trading above the 1.2800 handle, as bullish momentum extended from the mid-week breakout. The pair has moved into territory not seen since early 2024, with buyers pushing up to new near-term highs.
**Key Technical Points:**
– The robust up move in recent sessions has pushed GBP/USD above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, a technically bullish development
– Immediate support is now seen at previous resistance zones around 1.2740-1.2750
– The pair faces initial resistance at 1.2860, followed by a more significant hurdle at 1.2892
– The short-term rising trendline from late May remains intact and guides the current bullish move
**Daily Chart Technical Details**
The daily chart highlights a series of higher lows and higher highs, indicative of a strengthening bullish trend. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has entered overbought territory, reflecting the velocity of the move, but not yet signaling a sharp reversal is imminent.
**Short-Term Outlook and Scenarios**
The current technical configuration points to a bullish stance in the near term, but price action in response to upcoming catalysts remains critical.
**Potential Bullish Scenario:**
– Sustained trades above 1.2860 could clear the way for an advance toward the psychological 1.3000 barrier.
– A decisive break above this level would target peaks from March 2024 around 1.3140.
– Continued upside could be supported if UK data surprises to the upside or if the US Dollar weakens further on dovish Fed messaging.
**Potential Bearish Scenario:**
– Failure to break convincingly above 1.2860-1.2892 resistance could see profit taking and a retracement.
– Key support is at 1.2740; a break and daily close below this level would suggest a deeper corrective move, with further targets at 1.2666 (early June swing low).
– A drop below 1.2600 would likely trigger a reassessment of the medium-term bullish case.
**Factors to Watch:**
– UK Economic Announcements: GDP releases, inflation reports, and wage data can all provide the volatility needed to test support or resistance.
– Federal Reserve Commentary: Any unexpectedly hawkish shift from Fed officials could give the Dollar renewed strength.
– Broader Risk Sentiment: Equities and commodities rallies (or slumps) tend to correlate with pound performance.
**Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators**
– The pair’s moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200) are all aligned in order, with shorter averages above longer ones, reinforcing the bullish structure.
– Momentum indicators:
– RSI is in the low-to-mid 70s, suggesting overbought conditions,
Read more on GBP/USD trading.