Title: USD/JPY Slips Under Negative Pressure: A Technical Outlook
Original Analysis by Economies.com, August 15, 2025
Rewritten and expanded version based on original content from Economies.com
The USD/JPY pair experienced fresh downside momentum on August 15, 2025, with bearish pressure intensifying after failing to hold onto critical support levels. This decline occurred amid renewed technical signals pointing toward a deeper correction in the pair, aligning with a shift in short-term sentiment. This article presents an in-depth technical overview of the pair, expanding upon the original analysis posted by Economies.com.
Market Performance Overview
The USD/JPY pair opened the trading session displaying minor fluctuations before succumbing to bearish forces. This movement is interpreted as a reaction to accumulating negative pressure that has been building over recent sessions. Key indicators and chart patterns suggest that the bearish scenario continues to resonate with market participants, which has led to a break below the previously key support level at 145.90.
Key Developments
– The pair broke decisively below support at 145.90, signaling a transition from consolidation to renewed downward movement.
– Technical indicators now support continued weakness, with oscillators turning south and bearish candlestick patterns forming across various timeframes.
– The short-term negative trend is anticipated to push the pair toward additional support levels, opening the path to deeper corrections.
Technical Analysis
The technical landscape of USD/JPY has increasingly shifted toward a bearish sentiment, with numerous signals reinforcing the potential for further declines:
Support and Resistance Levels
– Immediate resistance now stands near the broken support level at 145.90. This region may act as a ceiling in the short term.
– Further resistance lies at 146.50, where a previous double-top formation suggests robust supply.
– On the downside, the first essential support level is located at 144.50, with additional support at 143.20, a level that aligns with the 50-day EMA.
– A break below 143.20 could lead to further downside toward 141.80, a zone previously marked by price-reversal activity earlier this year.
Moving Averages
– The 50-day EMA has started sloping downward after months of pointing upward, hinting at a shift in medium-term momentum.
– The 200-day EMA remains flat, offering longer-term support in the 139.00 region.
– The price currently trades below the 50-day EMA, which acts as dynamic resistance.
MACD and RSI Indicators
– The MACD indicator has shown a bearish crossover as the signal line moves above the MACD line, further validating downside momentum.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 50, affirming the presence of bearish pressure. It currently reads near 42, indicating that further room exists for downside movement before reaching oversold conditions.
Chart Patterns and Price Action
– A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 146.70 earlier in the week, contributing to bearish sentiment.
– The breakdown below 145.90 validates a head-and-shoulders pattern that had formed over the past ten sessions.
– Volume during the decline suggests strong conviction among sellers.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Weakness
The bearish scenario is not driven by technical factors alone. Several underlying macroeconomic themes are contributing to the negative outlook for USD/JPY:
US Dollar Softness
– Recent US economic data revealed disappointments in job creation and consumer sentiment, prompting attention on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
– Market participants are starting to price in the possibility of interest rate stabilization or cuts in early 2026, reducing the appeal of USD-based assets.
Japanese Yen Strength
– The Japanese yen strengthened slightly on safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in Asia and market volatility in global equities.
– The Bank of Japan has maintained accommodative policy; however, recent statements from policymakers suggest a greater openness to eventual policy normalization.
– A slight uptick in Japan’s inflation numbers has led to speculation that
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