**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis and Outlook**
*Source: ActionForex.com, with additional commentary and perspective.*
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**Introduction**
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been navigating a complex landscape against the US Dollar (USD), influenced by both domestic and global economic factors. The interplay of central bank policies, economic data releases, and risk sentiment has contributed to volatility in the AUD/USD pair. This comprehensive weekly analysis synthesizes technical insights and key fundamentals driving the pair’s short- and long-term trends, incorporating perspectives from both the original ActionForex analysis and other credible sources.
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**Summary of Previous Week’s Price Action**
– **Opening and Closing Levels**: The pair started the week near the 0.6650 zone and faced significant volatility, trading in a broad range before closing modestly lower around 0.6600.
– **Trading Range**: Weekly high was recorded near 0.6700 and the low tested the 0.6570 region.
– **Volatility Drivers**: Shifts in market sentiment following the latest US inflation data and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy statement were key drivers.
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**Key Technical Levels**
*Support Levels*:
– 0.6590: Initial support observed, related to prior consolidation and the 55-day moving average.
– 0.6550: Intermediate support coinciding with a minor swing low.
– 0.6469: Represents the May low, significant for trend assessment.
*Resistance Levels*:
– 0.6713: Recent swing high and a critical resistance barrier.
– 0.6750: Psychological round number and minor historical congestion.
– 0.6870: The year’s peak, setting the upper limit of the current trading range.
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**Short-Term Technical Outlook**
– **Trend Analysis**: The AUD/USD pair appears to be settling into a corrective pullback within a broader bullish rebound initiated in April. Despite a downside bias emerging late in the week, price action has not definitively confirmed a change in the nascent uptrend.
– **Momentum Signals**: The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending lower, approaching the neutral 50 mark after previously being in bullish territory. This indicates waning bullish momentum but not an outright reversal.
– **Moving Averages**:
– The 20-day moving average is holding as short-term resistance at 0.6645.
– The 55-day moving average provides support, tentatively at 0.6590.
– Price action oscillating between these moving averages signals a period of indecision.
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**Medium-Term Technical Picture**
– **Correction Containment**: Until the pair makes a clear break below 0.6590, recent downside pressures are considered corrective. A sustained break beneath the 0.6590 and 0.6550 levels would likely invite renewed selling, risking a decline toward the 0.6469 support from May’s low.
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