Forecast Update for EUR/USD – August 15, 2025
Original Source: Economies.com | Author: Economies.com Editorial Team
Link: https://www.economies.com/forex/eur-usd-analysis/forecast-update-for-eurusd–15-08-2025-120358
The EUR/USD pair displayed mixed performance during recent sessions, reflecting the market’s cautious mood amid economic uncertainties and key upcoming data releases. Despite attempts to recover lost territory, the euro continues to face resistance, especially from technical levels that anchor downward trends. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pair’s recent behavior, key technical indicators, possible market scenarios, and an extended outlook based on both macroeconomic and technical assessments.
Overview of Recent Price Action
– EUR/USD fluctuated near the 1.0900 level during the early hours of August 15, 2025.
– The pair attempted to rebound from the previous day’s lows but was met with sustained selling pressure.
– Key levels continue to dictate short-term trends, with the pivotal 1.0950 zone acting as a ceiling for bullish moves.
The pair has failed to mount a sustained move higher, largely due to a combination of hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve rhetoric and mixed macroeconomic signals from the Eurozone. The euro has generally remained on the back foot as resilient U.S. economic data supports prolonged high interest rates, contrasting with relatively stagnant growth data from countries in the euro area.
Technical Analysis
Support and Resistance Levels:
– Immediate Resistance: 1.0950–1.0975 remains the primary resistance area. Bulls attempted to test this zone but were repeatedly rejected.
– Further Resistance: If the pair manages to breach 1.0975, it could climb toward 1.1035–1.1050, which aligns with the 50-day moving average and previous swing highs.
– Immediate Support: 1.0865 is marked as initial support, reflecting a short consolidation area.
– Key Support Zone: 1.0800–1.0820, a critical level where the pair found temporary balance in previous sessions.
– Long-Term Support: Below 1.0800, the next support levels are 1.0745 and then 1.0680, which would signal a continuation of the bearish trend if broken.
Trend Indicators:
– The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned above current market prices, reinforcing bearish pressure.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 40–45 zone, suggesting that there is no momentum for a strong reversal at this stage.
– The MACD histogram continues to trend negatively just below the zero line, further validating negative sentiment among traders.
Chart Patterns and Candlestick Signals:
– Recent candlesticks are marked by long upper wicks, indicating rejection of higher prices.
– Lack of bullish engulfing patterns or reversal setups supports the continuation of downside momentum.
Analytical Summary:
– Current sentiment is moderately bearish to neutral.
– The inability to breach 1.0950 is crucial; it suggests bulls are lacking conviction.
– A break and sustained move below 1.0865 could accelerate the downtrend to the 1.0800 handle.
Fundamental Drivers Affecting EUR/USD
United States:
– The inflation print for July showed an increase year over year, strengthening the argument for the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy stance.
– Non-Farm Payroll employment data showed better-than-expected job creation, helping support the U.S. dollar.
– Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech recently, reiterating resolve in maintaining higher rates until data convincingly aligns with inflation targets.
Eurozone:
– GDP growth across the euro bloc has been tepid, with Germany recording marginal contraction during Q2 of 2025.
– The European Central Bank (ECB) holds a relatively dovish tone, with a growing number of Governing Council members expressing concerns about inflation easing faster than
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