**AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Diverging Trends Mark Critical Phases for Major Forex Pairs**
*Original article by James Hyerczyk, FX Empire. Additional insights from Action Forex and DailyFX.*
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## Introduction: Shifts in the Forex Landscape
The major currency pairs AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY are currently demonstrating starkly different trends against the backdrop of shifting central bank policies and evolving macroeconomic indicators. As traders look to navigate volatile markets, a detailed analysis of these pairs is essential in identifying opportunity and risk. This extended article will break down the technical and fundamental outlooks for each pair and highlight the key support and resistance levels currently influencing price action. Additional perspectives from reputable forex analysis sources are incorporated for a comprehensive view.
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## AUD/USD: Sustained Bearish Pressure Amid Fundamental Uncertainty
The Australian Dollar has come under pronounced downward pressure against the US Dollar, with sellers maintaining control of the pair. Multiple factors contribute to this bearish outlook, principally diverging monetary policy paths and persistent global growth concerns.
### Key Drivers:
– **Monetary Policy Divergence:**
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a cautious stance, showing hesitation to commit to further rate hikes.
– In contrast, recent US Federal Reserve communications and data releases have underlined persistent inflationary pressures, diminishing expectations of early rate cuts.
– **Soft Chinese Data:**
– As Australia’s largest trading partner, any slowdown in Chinese economic growth ripples through to the commodity-linked Australian Dollar.
– Softening demand for Australian exports, especially iron ore, has been a dampener.
– **US Dollar Resilience:**
– Stronger-than-expected US employment and inflation figures have fueled broad-based US Dollar strength.
### Technical Analysis
– **Trend Structure:**
– The AUD/USD pair is entrenched in a broader bearish trend, confirmed by a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily time frame.
– **Immediate Support and Resistance:**
– **Support:** The critical support sits near the 0.6520 and 0.6460 levels, areas that previously arrested declines and triggered minor rebounds.
– **Resistance:** The 0.6600 threshold is now a significant area of overhead resistance, with the 50-day moving average aligning closely as a further technical barrier.
– **Momentum and Indicators:**
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, confirming bearish momentum.
– A sustained close below 0.6520 would likely open the path to the next major floor at 0.6460.
### Broader Scenarios
– **Failure to Reclaim 0.6600:**
– If the pair cannot recover and hold above the 0.6600 pivot, downside momentum is likely to accelerate, potentially exposing the 0.6400 psychological level as the next support zone.
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