Original analysis sourced from ActionForex.com, authored by ActionForex Analysts: https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/608932-usd-jpy-mid-day-outlook-2141/. Below is a rewritten and expanded version focusing on the USD/JPY pair, incorporating technical analysis, market context, and potential price action forecasts.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Mid-Day Outlook – Market Analysis and Forward Guidance
The USD/JPY currency pair continues to display bullish momentum, with the US dollar gaining strength against the Japanese yen. Current price action suggests that upward pressure is likely to persist in the short term as key resistance levels are within reach. Analysis supports this narrative with firm structures on higher timeframes and resilient bullish behavior on intraday charts.
As of the latest developments, USD/JPY exhibits upward movement near a key barrier around the psychological 157.70 level. The intraday bias stays on the upside with the expectation of sustained momentum. The next line of resistance is approaching, and broader patterns suggest potential extension to a new high.
Current Technical Overview
The current intraday price movement reinforces an upward bias, rooted in both fundamental and technical factors. Here is a deeper analysis of the current technical conditions:
– The pair has surpassed short-term resistance levels, with price action now consolidating gains just below the recent swing high.
– Momentum indicators remain in supportive territory:
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains above the neutral 50 line, suggesting ongoing bullish strength.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bullish, with the MACD line staying well above the signal line.
– The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart slope upwards, confirming the prevailing short-term uptrend.
– Price movement has stayed above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), with buyers maintaining dominance during corrective pullbacks.
– There are no immediate signs of exhaustion or bearish reversal, with minor retracements quickly absorbed by buying interest.
Price Targets and Resistance Levels
The price structure signals that bulls remain in control, with a few notable levels to watch for continuation or reversal:
– The primary resistance target in the near term is around the 157.70 handle, which aligns with recent tops seen earlier in the month.
– If buyers manage to break above that level convincingly, further strength is likely.
– A sustained break past the 157.70 resistance zone would place focus on the 160.00 psychological level, a major round number and probable resistance.
– Beyond this point, an extended projection could bring the next resistance around 161.80 into view, representing a 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the late-April rally.
On the downside, areas of support are forming around recent pullback lows:
– Initial support lies at 155.80, a previous resistance-turned-support zone.
– Further support stands at 154.50, a level where price had previously consolidated during the April-to-May transition.
– Breaks below these levels may suggest the beginning of a deeper correction, but trends remain bullish unless those supports collapse.
Medium-Term Technical Outlook
Zooming out to the daily and weekly charts, the medium-term trajectory remains supportive of further gains in USD/JPY:
– The overall upward structure extends from the year-to-date low of 140.25 and has been steadily building higher lows and higher highs.
– On the daily chart, price remains well-supported by the 50-day SMA, which has consistently acted as dynamic support since March 2024.
– The break above previous resistance at 155.80 has turned into a launchpad for the next bullish leg.
– The MACD histogram on the daily chart continues to print positive bars, confirming building upside pressure.
The broader trend remains constructive as long as intermediate support at 153.00 holds. A drop below this level would signal a weakening trend and might
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