**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: 24th to 29th August 2025**
*By: Nicholas Kitonyi, originally published at DailyForex.com*
**Overview**
The British Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) currency pair encountered significant volatility over the past week, with sessions dominated by key macroeconomic announcements from both sides of the Atlantic. As traders assess the evolving monetary policy trajectories, the currency pair continues to react to divergent data from the UK and US. The forecast for the week of 24th to 29th August 2025 pivots on technical and fundamental drivers, which could shape new trends or reinforce the prevailing sentiment in the Forex market.
**Key Themes from Last Week**
The following factors were at the forefront in shaping GBP/USD price action last week:
– **UK Inflation and Growth Figures:** The latest data showed UK inflation continues to cool, easing pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to tighten rates aggressively. Meanwhile, GDP growth remains sluggish, reinforcing the narrative of a fragile recovery.
– **US Economic Strength:** Positive data out of the US, including robust jobs figures and persistent inflationary pressures, has kept expectations anchored for a ‘higher for longer’ path from the Federal Reserve.
– **Central Bank Divergence:** The perception of diverging monetary policies – with the BoE possibly pausing soon, while the Fed remains hawkish – has intensified.
– **Geopolitical and Global Market Risks:** Ongoing global uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and political developments, have fostered additional volatility.
**Fundamental Drivers in Focus This Week**
Looking ahead to the week of 24th to 29th August 2025, several fundamental factors are set to influence GBP/USD moves. Traders should be alert to the following drivers:
*1. Incoming Macroeconomic Data Releases*
– **UK Retail Sales:** A notable print here could help gauge the health of UK consumer spending, a crucial pillar of the post-pandemic recovery.
– **US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index:** As the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, a hotter-than-expected reading could revive bets on further rate hikes.
– **UK and US Preliminary GDP (Q2) Figures:** Growth data will help set the tone for expectations around monetary policy adjustments.
*2. Central Bank Communication*
– **BoE Speeches:** Any hints regarding policy pauses, cuts, or continued vigilance on inflation will be closely watched.
– **Fed Chair Powell’s Comments:** Following recent hawkish tones, markets await further updates on the Fed’s macroeconomic outlook and policy stance.
*3. Sentiment and Risk Appetite*
– **Risk Aversion vs. Appetite:** Equity market trends, US Treasury yields, and risk sentiment will continue to impact GBP/USD directionality through haven flows toward the dollar or demand for the pound.
**Technical Analysis: Chart Levels and Price Action**
A review of the weekly chart and major technical levels provides critical insights for the next trading sessions.
*Current Price Context*
– The GBP/USD closed last week around 1.2550, after oscillating between highs near 1.2650 and lows near 1.2450.
– The currency pair remains within a multi-week range, reflecting indecision as traders weigh shifting expectations for UK and US interest rates.
*Support and Resistance Levels*
Key price areas to watch include:
– **Immediate Resistance:** 1.2620–1.2650 zone, where rallies have repeatedly found sellers.
– **Major Resistance:** 1.2740–1.2770, coinciding with previous swing highs and fib retracement levels.
– **Initial Support:** 1.2480–1.2500, a level that provided a floor last week.
– **Major Support:** 1.2350–1.2360, the lowest points seen in recent consolidation.
*Trend and Momentum Indicators*
– **50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages:** The pair
Read more on GBP/USD trading.