Title: Forex Weekly Forecast: August 24–29, 2025 – Key Levels, Trends, and Market Sentiment
By: DailyForex.com Editorial Team
This comprehensive weekly Forex forecast for August 24–29, 2025, provides an in-depth analysis of major currency pairs, key technical levels, fundamental drivers, and sentiment indicators that are likely to influence global foreign exchange markets. With central banks hinting at divergent policy paths, rising geopolitical tensions, and evolving macroeconomic data, traders are called to remain agile and well-informed.
This outlook draws primarily from DailyForex’s original expert analysis and has been supplemented with recent market expectations gathered from reliable financial sources to give traders a wider perspective for the week ahead.
Overview: Market Themes Influencing Forex Trading
Several major themes are driving the Forex markets currently. These themes are likely to play a prominent role through the last week of August 2025:
– Divergent monetary policies, particularly between the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ)
– Inflation cooling in the United States but remaining persistent elsewhere
– Risk appetite returning to markets amid improved investor confidence
– Strengthening U.S. dollar against key rivals as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance
– Chinese economic concerns weighing on commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar
– Geopolitical friction continuing in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea
Key Data Releases to Watch (Aug 24–29):
– U.S. Core PCE Price Index (Aug 29): Fed’s preferred inflation metric
– Eurozone Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations
– UK Retail Sales (month-on-month)
– Japan Unemployment Rate & Tokyo Core CPI
– Canada GDP and Retail Sales data
– Australia CPI (Quarterly & Trimmed Mean)
– U.S. Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders
EUR/USD Outlook
The EUR/USD pair remains under downward pressure as the U.S. dollar continues to dominate amid resilient economic data and expectations of further rate holds or even hikes from the Federal Reserve.
– Technical View:
– Resistance: 1.0900 and 1.1000 are hurdle zones for bulls
– Support: 1.0720 (key trendline), followed by 1.0600 and 1.0500
– 50-day and 200-day moving averages intersect near 1.0810, suggesting potential pivot area
– RSI trending near oversold levels but not yet receiving buying momentum
– Fundamental Drivers:
– Signs of stagnation in Eurozone growth
– German PMI data reflecting contraction in both manufacturing and services
– ECB cautious amid weak regional demand, although inflation remains stubbornly near 3.5%
– Forecast: Bias remains bearish unless the pair can break above 1.0900 with sustained momentum. A downside test of 1.0600 remains likely if U.S. data stays firm.
GBP/USD Outlook
Cable has faced renewed downside risk, with the pound pressured by softer UK economic indicators, including labor market weakness and lingering inflation, which complicates the BoE’s monetary stance.
– Technical View:
– Resistance: 1.2750 followed by 1.2850
– Support: 1.2600 (critical support), followed by 1.2450
– Daily stochastics showing signs of topping; MACD flipping into bearish territory
– Consolidation patterns suggest a potential breakout move
– Fundamental Drivers:
– UK Retail Sales expected to post a mild rebound after a recent contraction
– Inflation remains above 6%, but BoE cautious about additional tightening due to downside growth risks
– Recent jobless claims up, indicating stress in the labor force
– Forecast: Neutral-to-Bearish. 1.2600 is a key hold level; a break may expose
Read more on USD/CAD trading.