**USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook – Technical Analysis and Market Commentary**
Original article by ActionForex.com. Rewritten and expanded for clarity and depth.
As of mid-day trading on June 4, 2024, the USD/JPY currency pair continues to attract attention from market participants due to shifting fundamentals and technical movements. We take a deeper look at the latest developments in this pair, assess the underlying technical structure, and explore near-term scenarios that traders and investors may wish to monitor closely.
This article dissects the current USD/JPY outlook by breaking down price action insights, identifying important resistance and support levels, and providing a potential roadmap based on present indicators.
## Recent Price Activity and Overview
The USD/JPY pair is showing a mild recovery during today’s session, extending higher after finding short-term support. While the pair continues to navigate a broader correction from last month’s high at 157.70, recent strength suggests a possible challenge to near resistance levels.
– After dipping as low as 153.59 last week, the currency pair has attempted a bounce, climbing above 155.00.
– The latest rebound appears corrective in nature, unfolding within the confines of the overall retracement off the YTD high.
– Market sentiment remains mixed as traders assess U.S. yield movements, Bank of Japan policy expectations, and potential intervention risks.
While bulls may be encouraged by the intraday recovery, the broader picture remains clouded by uncertain directionality within a correctional structure.
## Near-Term Technical Outlook
From a short-term perspective, the current price behavior is best viewed as a consolidation within a well-established correction phase. The pair remains below some key resistance zones that bulls would need to clear before resuming any sustained uptrend.
– The near-term rebound is capped beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 157.70 to 153.59, which lies around the 155.97 region.
– Unless the pair convincingly breaks above this threshold, it is likely to stay in corrective mode.
– On the downside, a move back below 154.52 may reassert bearish momentum and set the stage for a test of the 153.59 support again.
Given the structure of the correction, the pair’s movements within the 153.50–156.00 range are expected to play a pivotal role in defining the next impulse direction.
## Important Technical Levels to Monitor
Traders should stay aware of the following support and resistance markers, which are likely to act as critical inflection points in price movement over the coming sessions:
Key Resistance Levels:
– 155.97: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing
– 156.70: Near the April and early May highs, a strong resistance zone
– 157.70: Year-to-date high; a decisive break above this level would invalidate the corrective pattern
Key Support Levels:
– 154.52: Minor support from recent intraday lows
– 153.59: Last week’s low and a crucial support level to hold
– 151.86: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 146.48 to 157.70; a breach here would confirm that the correction has deeper implications
## Broader Technical Structure and Possibilities
The larger technical framework suggests the pair topped out near the 157.70 area after an extended run-up from its March lows. The ongoing move lower is being interpreted as a medium-term corrective pullback rather than a full-fledged trend reversal — for now.
The key technical assumption is that the move down from 157.70 to 153.59 represents a corrective wave (possibly wave A in an ABC correction pattern), and the current recovery could be wave B. If this outlook holds, we can expect wave C to follow, leading to further declines.
Key technical considerations:
– So long as the 155.97–157.70 resistance
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.