**EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook: Extended Intraday Consolidation Amid Bearish Risks**
Original article by ActionForex.com
Rewritten and expanded by AI, based on content from: https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/eurusd-outlook/609773-eur-usd-mid-day-outlook-2147/
The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting further neutral behavior during the mid-day session. However, bearish risks persist below the resistance level of 1.0915, leaving the market in a state of cautious consolidation. The currency pair has fluctuated within a confined range, with no decisive breakout on either side, indicating that market participants are waiting for further fundamental or technical confirmation before engaging more aggressively.
This article provides an extended technical outlook on the currency pair and explores various scenarios that may unfold based on current price actions and market momentum. It also evaluates the key levels to watch and what could potentially trigger a shift in sentiment.
## Current Price Behavior and Technical Structure
The EUR/USD remains trapped in a tight consolidation, suggesting that short-term direction is uncertain. Yet, technical indications point toward an underlying bearish structure on the intraday time frame. The pair has attempted to recover but struggles to break through resistance levels convincingly.
– Current price range has narrowed, indicating low volatility and indecisiveness in the market.
– No confirmation of a bullish breakout above 1.0915 has occurred.
– Recent candles in the 4-hour chart show upper wicks, implying rejection from higher prices.
This lack of bullish follow-through suggests that the bears may still be in control, or at the very least suppressing upward momentum from building further.
## Immediate Bias and Near-Term Path
The intraday bias remains neutral for now due to the consolidation range, while the broader picture leans slightly bearish. Initiating a conviction-based position at current levels without a breakout could pose higher risks.
– Sustained resistance lies at 1.0915. A firm break above this level is needed to revive bullish pressure.
– Support is seen at 1.0723, the immediate pivot level to watch on the downside.
– Momentum oscillators like RSI and MACD point toward weakening upside pressure.
In the short term, a break below 1.0723 may resume the recent downtrend from the May 2024 high of 1.0915. If this scenario materializes, the next target would be the 1.0600 support zone.
## Scenario 1: Downside Resumption if Support Breaks
If 1.0723 support breaks decisively, EUR/USD may resume its decline, continuing the move from its May peak. This could mark a renewed phase of dollar strength or euro weakness, reflecting economic or policy divergence between the US and the Eurozone.
– First downside target: 1.0634 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0601 to 1.0915 rally).
– Second target: 1.0601, the prior swing low which forms a significant technical base.
If price breaches 1.0601, further bearish extension cannot be ruled out, potentially opening downside toward 1.0500, which served as strong support earlier in Q1 2024.
## Scenario 2: Bullish Recovery if Resistance Breaks
Although the current bias suggests weakness, a break above 1.0915 would invalidate or delay short-term bearish setups. In such a case, EUR/USD would signal a return of buyers and a potential retest of the June and April highs.
– First resistance to the upside: 1.0960, followed by 1.1000 psychological level.
– Sustained trading above 1.1000 may lead to a revisit of the yearly high at 1.1095.
This scenario would likely coincide with a shift in economic data favoring the Eurozone, or dovish developments in the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
## Zooming Out: Medium-Term
Read more on EUR/USD trading.