Title: Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – September 1st, 2025
Original Source: EWMinteractive.com
Author: Ivo Luhse
On September 1st, 2025, EWMinteractive provided a detailed Elliott Wave analysis of the USDJPY currency pair. The pair had begun to test some long-standing support and resistance zones, and momentum shifts hinted at a larger trend development. With Elliott Wave theory as the foundation, the analysis brought clarity to the evolving structure and outlined what traders could potentially expect moving forward.
Ivo Luhse’s forecast navigates both the macro and lower time frame perspectives using the Wave Principle, shedding light on potential future moves based on past and current wave patterns. Here, we break down and expand upon this analysis to better understand what the Elliott Wave structure on USDJPY suggests about the market environment leading into the latter half of 2025.
Context and Long-Term View
The larger Elliott Wave picture for USDJPY has been evolving for several years. Since the 2011 bottom at around 75.50, the pair has generally moved in an upward trajectory, capturing the essence of a motive Elliott Wave pattern.
Key Highlights of the Long-Term Structure:
– The entire movement from 2011 onward has been interpreted as a five-wave bullish impulse.
– Wave I started at 75.50, peaking around 125 in mid-2015.
– Wave II took the form of a prolonged corrective phase, descending to just under 100 by early 2016.
– Wave III resumed the bullish path, extending significantly and peaking at 151.90 in 2022.
– Wave IV followed, retracing portions of the wave III gains, appearing choppy and complex in structure.
That leaves Wave V, the potential final leg of the impulsive move, as the one currently in formation or nearing completion by September 2025. Based on traditional wave theory, Wave V can take various forms but is often less aggressive than Wave III, making close analysis even more crucial.
Understanding Wave V
As of September 2025, the USDJPY pair was trading around 139-140, with momentum indicators displaying signs of indecision. Luhse’s analysis highlights a possible completed five-wave move within wave V, meaning that the long-term uptrend initiated in 2011 might now be exhausted.
– The supposed completion level of wave V was identified at around 151.90 from 2022.
– Following this, the current decline in USDJPY can be interpreted as the beginning stages of a large corrective sequence, potentially classified as wave A of a larger A-B-C correction.
– This would suggest a longer-term bearish mood in USDJPY if this interpretation proves correct.
Wave counts imply that a major top is likely already in place, and a corrective pattern (possibly zigzag or flat) may unfold over the next several quarters.
Bearish Implications Based on Wave Patterns
If the top is truly in at 151.90 and the count is correct, a long-term corrective phase could dominate market direction. According to classic Elliott Wave principles, corrective waves typically unfold in one of the following forms:
1. Zigzag (5-3-5)
2. Flat (3-3-5)
3. Triangle (3-3-3-3-3)
4. Combination (multiple corrections linked together)
The current decline from the 151.90 peak shows early signs of impulsiveness, which supports the argument that wave A of a correction is in progress.
Details on Short-Term Outlook
Zooming in on the short-term charts, the decline from the 151.90 level appears to be subdividing into a series of clean five-wave moves. This structural behavior aligns with the formation of wave A in a zigzag correction.
According to the analysis:
– The drop from 151.90 to 137 was likely a five-wave impulse pattern labeled as wave (i) of A.
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.