**GBP/USD Price Forecast: Sterling Balances at 1.35 Ahead of Fed, Jobs Data**
*Based on the analysis by TradingNews.com. Original author: TradingNews.com Financial Desk*
The British pound sterling (GBP) has been caught in a delicate balancing act against the US dollar (USD), hovering close to the significant 1.35 level amid a climate of economic uncertainty and mounting expectations for critical data releases. As traders and investors look to navigate near-term volatility, the GBP/USD exchange rate stands at a crucial inflection point, influenced by anticipation surrounding US Federal Reserve commentary and the release of pivotal US employment figures.
This comprehensive GBP/USD forecast breaks down the key drivers impacting the currency pair, recent technical developments, and the fundamental factors shaping market expectations as the Forex market braces for decisive events.
## GBP/USD Recent Performance: A Closer Look
The GBP/USD currency pair has endured significant swings in recent sessions. After a period of upside momentum that saw sterling rallying on optimism over the UK’s economic resilience, momentum has stuttered in light of renewed dollar strength and risk-off sentiment across global markets. At the heart of this retracement is a resurgent USD, buoyed by speculation of tighter US monetary policy.
### Key Performance Highlights
– **GBP/USD has struggled to maintain advances above the 1.35 psychological barrier.**
– **Sterling’s latest upside attempts were met with resistance as risk appetite diminished.**
– **Market positioning remains cautious ahead of significant US economic releases.**
With the pair largely treading water near the 1.35 level, traders are wary of making aggressive bets before confirmation from macroeconomic data.
## Key Factors Influencing GBP/USD
Several factors currently play pivotal roles in guiding sterling’s value:
### 1. **Monetary Policy Divergence**
– The Federal Reserve is widely expected to press ahead with rate hikes and potentially taper its asset purchase program, reinforcing the dollar’s yield advantage.
– The Bank of England also faces rate hike pressure; however, recent communications have signaled a slightly more dovish undertone, reflecting domestic economic headwinds.
### 2. **Economic Data Releases**
– The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report from the US is of particular significance.
– Analysts anticipate the jobs data to provide concrete signals about the labor market’s trajectory and the necessity for further Fed policy tightening.
### 3. **UK Macroeconomic Health**
– The UK economy has shown signs of resilience in the face of post-pandemic adjustments and supply chain disruptions.
– PMI surveys, retail sales data, and inflation readings in the UK remain closely monitored for early signals of economic momentum or slowdown.
### 4. **Risk Appetite and Global Sentiment**
– The broader mood in financial markets heavily influences GBP/USD, with risk-on sentiment benefiting sterling and risk aversion pushing flows into the traditionally safer US dollar.
– Geopolitical tensions and global growth forecasts are additional drivers of cross-asset volatility.
## What to Watch: Immediate Data Triggers
As the week progresses, market participants are primarily focused on the following:
– **Federal Reserve Statements:** Traders await commentary from Fed officials for hints on the pace and scale of upcoming policy actions.
– **US Jobs Data:** The Non-Farm Payrolls release has a proven track record of generating heightened volatility in FX markets, particularly for USD pairs.
– **UK Economic Indicators:** Any surprise data on growth, inflation, or consumer spending could alter expectations on the extent of the Bank of England’s policy response.
## Technical Analysis: GBP/USD at Decision Point
A technical appraisal of the GBP/USD chart underscores a classic inflection scenario, where the pair approaches a key support-turn-resistance area near the 1.35 handle.
### Short-term Chart Overview
– **Resistance:** The 1.3550 region marks the nearest technical ceiling, with sellers defending this zone on recent attempts to rally.
– **Support:** Immediate buyers have surfaced around
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