**SocGen Pound to Dollar Forecast: Crucial GBP/USD Resistance Remains at 1.3590**
*Original reporting credited to ExchangeRates.org.uk*
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As global markets move through 2025, the performance of the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) remains under close scrutiny from traders, investors, and economic analysts. The currency pair, known as GBP/USD or “Cable”, continues to be a barometer reflecting both UK and US economic health, policy divergence, and market sentiment. According to the latest outlook provided by Societe Generale (SocGen) analysts, a pivotal resistance for the pair stands at 1.3590, shaping the trajectory for the months ahead.
This article delves into the technical and fundamental landscape for GBP/USD as presented in the SocGen analysis, explores key economic drivers, and evaluates the potential implications of overcoming or failing to surpass this significant resistance level.
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## **Overview of Recent GBP/USD Performance**
Throughout the early part of 2025, GBP/USD has traded within a disciplined range, oscillating as shifting market factors dictate the tone. UK data releases, US Federal Reserve signals, and broader geopolitical influences have all added to near-term volatility. Consistency in direction, however, has largely been stymied by stiff resistance levels on the charts.
Key highlights include:
– Expectations for Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve interest rate moves
– Ongoing inflation adjustments in both economies
– Persistent economic uncertainty fueled by global events
Short-term rallies have encountered technical obstacles, with the 1.3590 mark being repeatedly identified as an upper bound. SocGen’s technical strategists emphasise that a sustained break above this level would signal a notably more bullish outlook, with potentially far-reaching implications.
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## **Societe Generale’s GBP/USD Technical Analysis**
SocGen’s technical review underscores the lasting significance of resistance at 1.3590. The analysis uses a blend of historical trading ranges, momentum indicators, and Fibonacci retracement levels to validate this price zone as a crossroads between bullish continuation and protracted consolidation.
**Key Points from SocGen’s Assessment:**
– **Multi-Year Resistance:** The 1.3590 mark is highlighted as a technical region where historical rallies have stalled, reflecting selling interest from major market participants. Prior peaks in late 2023 and 2024 were repeatedly rebuffed near this zone, lending credence to its role as resistance.
– **Momentum Oscillators:** SocGen’s strategists note that key oscillators have begun to turn higher, hinting at improving upward momentum. However, a clean break above 1.3590 on decisive volume is necessary to confirm a shift in trend.
– **Potential Targets:** Should GBP/USD break above 1.3590, the next resistance levels are identified near 1.3800 and 1.4000, areas that previously capped rallies in the post-pandemic era.
### Technical Landscape at a Glance
– **Support Levels:** 1.3310 and 1.3180 identified as slip points should the pair turn lower
– **Resistance Levels:** 1.3590 (primary), with subsequent interest at 1.3800 and 1.4000
– **50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages:** Both averages are converging just below current prices, further underscoring the critical juncture
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## **Fundamental Drivers Shaping GBP/USD**
Behind the technical charts lie complex fundamental interplays. The currency pair’s direction is determined not just by chart patterns, but by real economic forces shaping expectations for central bank moves, growth, and broader market risk appetite.
### **UK Economic Backdrop**
– **Bank of England Policy:** The BoE continues to face a fine balancing act. While inflation has moderated from post-pandemic spikes, the central bank has signalled a cautious approach to easing. Traders are closely watching for any clues on rate cuts,
Read more on GBP/USD trading.