USD/CAD Technical Analysis: September 11, 2025 Forecast
Original Article by: DailyForex.com
The USD/CAD currency pair continues to garner attention in global forex markets as it balances between Canadian economic conditions and the direction of the U.S. dollar. In this detailed analysis, we explore USD/CAD’s short-term and long-term outlooks, key technical levels, market sentiment, and how broader macroeconomic trends may influence future price movements. The original analysis was provided by DailyForex, but this article expands with additional technical insights and recent market developments.
Overview of USD/CAD Performance
As of early September 2025, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of consolidation within a longer-term uptrend. Price action remains well-supported near the 1.3600 handle while encountering resistance near the 1.3700 level. A number of factors have shaped this trading range, including:
– Divergence in monetary policy overtures by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
– Volatility in crude oil prices, which directly impacts the Canadian dollar.
– Risk-on/risk-off sentiment in global markets.
– Recent economic data releases from both the U.S. and Canada, altering expectations for interest rate decisions.
Key Technical Levels and Chart Analysis
At present, the USD/CAD pair is hovering around the 1.3650 area, bracketed between defined support and resistance levels. Technical indicators suggest mixed sentiment for the immediate outlook.
Support Levels:
– 1.3600 – A critical psychological and technical support zone. Previous price action has demonstrated the strength of this level in providing a platform for bullish bounces.
– 1.3550 – This level correlates with the 50-day EMA, reinforcing medium-term buyer interest.
– 1.3500 – Historically a strong support region, especially when combined with oversold RSI conditions.
Resistance Levels:
– 1.3700 – This marks strong horizontal resistance, tested several times over the past few trading sessions.
– 1.3780 – A key resistance zone overlapping with the upper Bollinger Band, likely to contain upward thrust unless fueled by strong fundamentals.
– 1.3850 – The next potential resistance if a breakout above 1.3780 occurs. This region was tested in May 2025.
Moving Averages:
– 50-Day EMA: Currently trending upward near 1.3550, indicating medium-term bullish momentum.
– 200-Day EMA: Remains situated around 1.3450, reinforcing the long-term uptrend.
RSI and Momentum:
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 57. Indicates mild bullish momentum without being overbought.
– MACD: The line remains above the signal, though flattening out, implying slowing bullish momentum.
– Stochastic Oscillator: Headed toward overbought territory, potentially signaling a short-term pullback.
Fibonacci Retracement Zones:
Using the July 2025 swing low near 1.3350 and the high around 1.3780, the key Fibonacci retracement levels include:
– 23.6% – ~1.3680: Currently acting as immediate resistance.
– 38.2% – ~1.3620: This level aligns with strong demand zones.
– 50.0% – ~1.3570: A critical zone to watch for price reaction.
– 61.8% – ~1.3520: Confluence with medium-term moving averages can provide rebound potential.
Fundamental Drivers Influencing USD/CAD
The technical pattern of USD/CAD is being layered over major macroeconomic developments, both domestically in Canada and abroad in the U.S.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook:
– The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish tilt through Q3 2025, citing persistent core inflation and resilient labor markets.
– The Fed’s September 2025 meeting minutes suggested further rate
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