**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast (14th to 19th September 2025)**
*Adapted from analysis by Daniel John at DailyForex.com*
The GBP/USD currency pair, known commonly in the Forex community as “Cable,” has been caught in a tug-of-war between shifting Federal Reserve and Bank of England expectations, post-pandemic growth headwinds, and geopolitical risks impacting both the UK and the US. Traders heading into the week of 14th to 19th September 2025 must prepare for heightened volatility as macroeconomic data and central bank signals are expected to drive moves.
### Recent Performance Overview
– **Last Week’s Range**: 1.2250 – 1.2430
– **Weekly Close**: 1.2325
– **Weekly Change**: Down about 0.5%
The pair kicked off last week supported by better-than-expected UK wage growth and steady employment. However, midweek US CPI inflation came in above expectations, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve may resume its hawkish stance or delay cuts, sending the dollar sharply higher. Cable subsequently pared gains and ended the week slightly lower.
### Macro Themes and Influences
#### US Dollar Drivers
– **Federal Reserve Outlook**: The market has kept a close eye on statements from FOMC members, especially as inflation continues to linger above the Fed’s 2 percent target. While the base case remains for a delay in rate cuts, sticky price data and robust employment figures make it difficult to forecast a clear Fed pivot.
– **US Economic Data**: Last week’s hot CPI print and better-than-expected retail sales add tailwinds for the greenback.
#### UK Sterling Drivers
– **Bank of England Policy**: Policymakers look cautious with the UK economy showing persistent signs of slow growth but core inflation remains higher than target. A weak GDP outlook tempers expectations despite sticky services price inflation.
– **Political Factors**: The ongoing phase of post-Brexit trade discussions and internal fiscal debates could weigh on sentiment for GBP.
– **Macro Releases**: UK wage growth and employment were positive, but soft manufacturing and continued weakness in consumer confidence underline downside risks.
### Upcoming Key Events
#### United Kingdom
– **CPI Inflation (Wednesday, 18th September)**: Anticipated to remain elevated, drawing market focus as the BoE prepares for its September policy meeting.
– **Retail Sales (Friday, 19th September)**: Follows a period of weak consumer spending, a key gauge of underlying economic health, and often a market-moving release.
– **Bank of England Decision Looming**: While not this week, traders will position themselves based on the likelihood of a rate hold or possible dovish pivot later this month.
#### United States
– **FOMC Meeting (Wednesday, 18th September)**: The Fed’s rate decision and press conference are critical. Markets will scrutinize the statement and projections.
– **US Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, 17th September)**: An important gauge of labor market health.
– **Building Permits/Housing Starts (Thursday, 17th September)**: Give further clues on the state of the housing sector.
### Technical Analysis
**Longer-Term Perspective:**
– **Monthly chart**: GBP/USD remains in an overall bearish tunnel, unable to break above the downward trendline from July 2023 swing highs. Price continues to be capped by 1.2550-1.2600 resistance.
– **Weekly chart**:
– Support at 1.2250 (last week’s low and horizontal level since late 2024).
– Next support at 1.2100 (March 2024 lows).
– Resistance at 1.2430 (recent weekly high), with the next level coming in at 1.2600 (multi-month range cap).
– MACD and RSI indicators continue to lean mildly
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