**GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Gains Fought For and Attained as Range Creeps Up (14 September 2025)**
*Original article by Adam Lemon*
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The GBP/USD currency pair presented analysts and traders with an intriguing picture during the week ending September 14, 2025. The British Pound continues to fight for gains against the US Dollar amid a complex interplay of economic data, evolving central bank policies, and global risk sentiment. This analysis by Adam Lemon provides a deep dive into recent market action, key drivers, technical setups, and strategic outlooks for the coming week.
## Overview: GBP/USD Performance and Context
Throughout the week, sterling faced substantial volatility but managed to inch higher in its established trading range. The pair’s movement was dictated by a mix of UK economic releases, US inflation data, central bank commentary, and shifts in global appetite for riskier assets.
### Key Market Drivers Influencing GBP/USD
– **UK economic data:** Monthly GDP, labor market statistics, and inflation readings influenced sterling direction.
– **Federal Reserve cues:** US CPI data and subsequent Fed commentary shaped the Dollar’s performance.
– **Risk sentiment:** Global equities, commodity prices, and geopolitical headlines directed flows into or out of the Dollar as a safe haven.
– **Brexit aftershocks:** Trade negotiations and UK-EU relations remain an undercurrent that periodically shakes GBP/USD.
## Recap of the Week: Main Moves and Catalysts
After opening at the lower end of its recent range, GBP/USD climbed steadily through midweek, facing resistance near 1.2900 before consolidating. Buyers were emboldened by a softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index release that dulled the Dollar’s edge, while sterling-specific news provided additional support.
### Key Events and Data Releases:
– **UK GDP for July:** Posted a slight beat, signaling resilience in British economic activity despite persistent headwinds. GBP found support on the data.
– **US inflation surprise:** The August CPI came in below forecasts, relieving market anxieties over a more hawkish Fed. Dollar retreat followed, boosting GBP/USD.
– **UK employment data:** Wage growth surprised to the upside, tightening expectations for policy from the Bank of England.
– **BoE commentary:** Policymakers hinted at caution in further rate increases, but some hawkish undertones persisted.
### Daily Recap:
– **Monday:** The pair started cautiously, finding stability above 1.2770 as traders awaited data.
– **Tuesday:** Positive UK GDP pushed the Pound higher, running into initial resistance at 1.2840.
– **Wednesday:** US inflation data triggered a quick GBP/USD rally, peaking just under 1.2900 before profit-taking set in.
– **Thursday-Friday:** Markets digested earlier moves; the pair settled in a new, higher range, with buyers maintaining control above the recent pivot.
## Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Chart Structure and Signals
Sterling’s advance was marked by a gradual, stepwise climb characterized by higher lows and well-tested resistance. A scrutiny of charts unveils several key technical observations:
### Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate support:** 1.2800 and 1.2770 (previous weekly lows and pivot levels)
– **Major support:** 1.2660–1.2700 (recent base and 50-day moving average)
– **Immediate resistance:** 1.2900 (multi-session high and psychological round number)
– **Major resistance:** 1.3000 (long-term barrier and potential breakout trigger)
### Indicator Overview
– **Moving averages:** The pair closed above its 20 and 50-day EMAs, indicating positive short-term momentum.
– **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** Reading remained in neutral-to-bullish territory, avoiding overbought extremes—suggesting scope for further gains.
– **MACD:** Turned positive on daily and 4-hourly charts, confirming developing upside
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