The following is a rewritten and expanded version of the article “Pairs in Focus: GBP/USD, Bitcoin, EUR/USD, USD/CHF” originally published on Forex Factory by Justin Bennett. It maintains the essential analysis while expanding on the market context for each trading pair and including updates from other expert perspectives to reach a minimum of 1000 words. Credit goes to the original author, Justin Bennett.
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# Weekly Forex and Crypto Market Outlook – Key Pairs in Focus
As markets continue to navigate the economic and geopolitical dynamics shaping 2024, the major currency pairs and cryptocurrencies provide critical clues about global risk sentiment. This week, several key instruments—GBP/USD, Bitcoin (BTC/USD), EUR/USD, and USD/CHF—are approaching important technical levels that traders will want to monitor closely.
Below is a detailed examination of each instrument including technical analysis, recent news, and relevant macroeconomic influences.
## 1. GBP/USD – At a Technical Inflection Near 1.2700
The British Pound closed last week just under 1.2700 against the US Dollar, a psychological level that has provided both resistance and support throughout recent sessions.
Key Technical Levels:
– Resistance: 1.2700
– Support: 1.2600
– Trendline support dating back to late 2022 remains valid
Analysis:
– Recent price action shows GBP/USD trapped within a well-defined ascending channel on the higher timeframes. Buyers have successfully defended the channel’s base around 1.2540, and price action has consistently found sellers near the 1.2700-1.2800 resistance zone.
– If buyers can force a sustained breakout above 1.2700, it could set up a move toward 1.2800 and possibly even 1.2900 over the coming weeks.
– Conversely, a rejection here would likely lead the pair back toward 1.2600 initially, with further downside risk toward the lower range of its ascending channel.
Fundamental Drivers:
– The UK economy continues to battle inflation, which remains above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target. However, slowing wage growth and cooling CPI figures suggest rate hikes may be on pause for now.
– The BoE is expected to hold rates at its upcoming meeting. Any dovish language could pressure GBP lower, especially if the US Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.
Market Forecast:
– Traders should keep an eye on the 1.2600 and 1.2700 levels. Breakout or breakdown from this range is likely to define the pair’s direction for the week ahead.
## 2. BTC/USD – Battling Resistance Around $71,500
Bitcoin has been consolidating just under all-time highs, with the $71,500 region acting as significant near-term resistance.
Critical Technical Points:
– Resistance: $71,500
– Support: $66,000
– Ascending channel support intact since early 2023
Highlights:
– Price has tested the $71,500 ceiling multiple times, signaling strong seller presence in that region.
– A successful breakout above $71,500 would put Bitcoin on track to retest its all-time high near $73,800. Holding above that level could open the door to $76,500 and beyond.
– Failure to break above $71,500 could see BTC retreat back toward $68,000, with a more pronounced correction potentially pushing prices to $64,000 – $66,000.
On-Chain and Sentiment Insights:
– Despite price hesitation, long-term holders remain bullish, and institutional inflows into exchange-traded products (such as the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF) continue to support the market.
– Rallying equity markets and expectations of monetary easing later this year also buoy sentiment for high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Macro-Economic Considerations:
– Bitcoin is increasingly responding to changes in the macroeconomic environment, including interest rate expectations and the performance of tech stocks.
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Read more on USD/CAD trading.