**AUD/USD Forecast and Technical Analysis for September 16, 2025**
*Based on Samuel Lowry’s analysis for DailyForex, with supplemental insights for a comprehensive view.*
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## Executive Summary
The AUD/USD currency pair continues to draw attention from traders, given its sensitivity to global risk sentiment and its relationship with movements in commodities, particularly iron ore, and the Chinese economy. As the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) set their respective monetary policies, the currency pair finds itself at a crossroads, reacting dynamically to economic indicators and central bank commentary from both nations. This technical analysis delves deep into current trends, price levels, market drivers, and future possibilities for AUD/USD, offering a detailed framework for traders and investors.
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## Recent Performance and Key Drivers
### Price Action Overview
– As of mid-September 2025, AUD/USD hovered near the 0.6450 level after recent volatility.
– The pair experienced a series of attempts to stage a recovery above the 0.6500 resistance but faced persistent selling pressure.
– Throughout the previous week, AUD/USD demonstrated a pattern of lower highs, indicating sellers remain in control.
### Major Influencers
1. **US Dollar Strength**
– The US dollar index (DXY) has maintained strength on the back of hawkish Federal Reserve statements.
– Strong US economic data, especially on jobs and inflation, continue supporting the Greenback.
2. **Australian Data and Sentiment**
– The Australian labor market remains robust; however, wage growth has been tepid.
– China’s economic uncertainty, stemming from sluggish property sector growth, weighs on Australia’s export-driven outlook.
– Iron ore prices, a key Australian export commodity, have been erratic and have failed to provide consistent support to AUD.
3. **Central Bank Policies**
– The Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to keep interest rates higher for longer, citing persistent inflation concerns.
– The Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a comparatively dovish tone, with minimal signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term.
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## Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Chart Patterns
### Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Resistance**
– 0.6500: A psychologically important level, tested multiple times in recent sessions.
– 0.6535: Prior swing high; a close above this may indicate reversal momentum.
– **Key Support**
– 0.6400: Recently defended by buyers but vulnerable amid ongoing risk-off trades.
– 0.6380: If breached, could expose the pair to declines toward the 0.6300 region.
### Trend and Momentum
– The AUD/USD daily chart shows a continued downward channel, with price action unable to break above major moving averages.
– The 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages both trace above current price levels, confirming a prevailing bearish structure.
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends below
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