Title: EUR/USD Forecast Update – September 17, 2025
Source: Economies.com
Original Author: Economies.com Analysis Team
Overview:
The EUR/USD currency pair displayed notable movement in the early sessions of September 17, 2025, attempting to recover ground after a period of bearish pressure. Although the pair managed to initiate a corrective upward wave, macroeconomic indicators and technical factors continue to weigh heavily on its long-term direction. This article provides a detailed breakdown of the EUR/USD pair’s recent performance, technical outlook, and forecast, compiled and expanded based on the original analysis published by Economies.com.
Market Performance Summary:
– The EUR/USD currency pair closed the previous session with noticeable weakness.
– Early trading on September 17 showed an attempt to resume the previous upward correction.
– Despite some recovery momentum, the pair struggled to break key resistance thresholds that are necessary for a sustained bullish trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
The technical picture offers mixed signals, with the general trend still leaning towards the bearish side. Several indicators are currently influencing the performance of the EUR/USD pair:
Support and Resistance Levels:
– Immediate Resistance: 1.0710
– Key Resistance: 1.0770
– Immediate Support: 1.0620
– Major Support: 1.0560
Moving Averages:
– The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Currently exerting downward pressure, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
– The 100-day SMA: Remains above current price action, reflecting medium-term bearish control.
– The 200-day SMA: Continues to slope downward, indicating longer-term downtrend momentum.
Indicator Summary:
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): Hovering around the 40 threshold, suggesting weakening bullish power and potential for downward movement unless supported by stronger momentum.
– MACD: Shows a bearish signal as the MACD line remains below the signal line, confirming that sellers are still dominant in the market.
– Stochastic Oscillator: Moving in the oversold territory, but no significant sign of a bullish reversal yet.
Fundamental Context:
The EUR/USD pair’s performance continues to be shaped by diverging monetary policy expectations, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments both in the Eurozone and the United States.
Eurozone Factors Influencing the EUR:
– Inflation Data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Eurozone remains below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target, which limits the ECB’s willingness to tighten monetary policy aggressively.
– ECB Monetary Policy: Recent remarks from ECB officials suggest a cautious approach, with no immediate hikes projected in 2025 due to subdued inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty.
– Economic Growth: Year-over-year GDP figures show a slowdown, as the Eurozone continues to navigate the ramifications of post-pandemic recovery phases, energy market disruptions, and fiscal constraints in several member economies.
United States Influences:
– Federal Reserve Policy: The US Federal Reserve maintains a firmer stance than the ECB. While rate hikes have paused temporarily, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the possibility of another increase if inflation reaccelerates.
– US Economic Data: Data printed last week confirms robust retail sales and positive employment numbers. These indicators bolster USD strength against the euro.
– Inflation Expectations: The US Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remains above 2 percent, reinforcing the likelihood of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance in the medium term.
Sentiment and Positioning:
– Market sentiment currently favors USD strength, with institutional and retail traders aligning closely with the dollar due to macroeconomic divergence.
– CFTC speculative positioning data shows that net-long USD positions have increased over the past two weeks, suggesting that professional traders anticipate continued downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Chart Configuration and Price Patterns:
– Double Top Formation: A double top has materialized around the 1.0770 level, a pattern commonly associated with trend reversals from bullish to bearish.
– Fibonacci Retracement: The pair’s recent downward move retr
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