**EURUSD: Saved by February Trend Line, but 1.1830 is Key**
*Based on original analysis by Justin Bennett at Daily Price Action*
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The EURUSD currency pair, one of the most widely traded and closely watched in the global forex market, recently demonstrated once again how technical levels can play a pivotal role in guiding price action. With volatility on the rise as traders digest macroeconomic data and central bank signals, the pair found crucial support at a trend line dating back to February. However, all eyes are now on a critical resistance level that could determine near-term direction. This article will delve deeply into the technical and fundamental landscape for EURUSD, focusing on key levels, potential scenarios, and what traders should watch moving forward.
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### The Power of Technical Levels: Trend Lines in Play
On June 11, 2021, EURUSD underwent a substantial selloff following hotter-than-expected US inflation data, which bolstered the US dollar across the board. As sentiment rapidly shifted, EURUSD fell to test an ascending trend line drawn from the low of February 2021. This trend line, acting as dynamic support, has repeatedly cushioned the pair over the past several months.
#### Key Points on the February Trend Line
– **Origins:** The trend line was established off the February 2021 swing low near 1.1950. Since then, every significant test has attracted buyers back into the market.
– **Recent Retest:** The June retest was no exception, with euro bulls stepping in to defend this key support, preventing what could have become a deeper breakdown.
– **Support Dynamics:** Price action shows that each bounce from this trend line has seen a diminished upside response, suggesting that buyers may be becoming less aggressive.
#### Why Trend Lines Matter
Trend lines encapsulate market psychology. When well-respected, they guide participants’ expectations. In EURUSD’s case, this February trend line has become a major battleground between bulls and bears.
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### A Pivotal Resistance: The 1.1830 Level
While support has been confirmed around the February trend line, a prominent resistance has revealed itself at 1.1830. This level, which originated as a pivot in early March, has consistently acted as a barrier to further gains and is currently the main threshold bulls must overcome to ignite additional upside.
#### Significance of 1.1830
– **Former Support, Now Resistance:** 1.1830 served as support several times earlier in the year before being breached. Since that breakdown, it has switched roles and now caps rallies.
– **Confluence Zone:** This area aligns with prior swing lows and highs, increasing its technical importance.
– **Market Reaction:** Every attempt to break through 1.1830 in the past several weeks has resulted in either sharp rejection or indecision, illustrating how key market participants are using this level as a decision point.
#### What’s at Stake
If EURUSD can close above 1.1830 convincingly, it would indicate a shift in underlying momentum and could pave the way for a run toward higher resistance areas. Conversely, repeated rejections from this level could trigger another downward move, perhaps even overwhelming the February trend line support.
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### Current Technical Structure: What the Charts Are Saying
EURUSD is currently locked in a well-defined range, hemmed in by the February trend line below and the 1.1830 barrier above.
#### Levels to Watch
– **Support:** February trend line, currently near 1.1700 (though slowly rising with each day).
– **Primary Resistance:** 1.1830, acting as the nearest ceiling for price action.
– **Secondary Resistance:** The 1.1970 region, which represents the next hurdle if bulls manage to reclaim 1.1830.
– **Breakdown Target:** A clear daily close below the trend line support could expose the early 2021 low around 1.160
Read more on GBP/USD trading.