**AUD/USD Forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – September 29, 2025
Inspired by insights from Matt Weller, FOREX.com**
The AUD/USD currency pair, often dubbed the “Aussie,” remains in the crosshairs of currency traders and investors due to its unique exposure to both regional and global economic factors. The week of September 29, 2025, is particularly crucial for this pair, given the convergence of U.S. economic data, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) guidance, and evolving commodity markets. This analysis delves into the factors shaping the AUD/USD foreseeable trend, key technical levels, and major economic indicators to monitor.
## Overview of AUD/USD Dynamics
– The AUD/USD is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, driven predominantly by events in the United States and Australia, as well as China, Australia’s largest trading partner.
– Australia’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, especially iron ore, coal, and gold.
– U.S. interest rate decisions and inflation readings remain key macroeconomic drivers for all USD pairs.
– The interplay between these dynamics forms the backbone of the prevailing trend for the AUD/USD.
## Recent Macro Developments
### Australia
– Australia’s economy continues to grapple with the effects of tightening monetary policy by the RBA.
– Inflation has been persistent, although signs of a cooling labor market are beginning to show.
– GDP growth has remained modest, constrained by weakening global demand, especially from China.
– The ongoing drought in Australia has had a limited but noteworthy effect on certain export sectors.
### United States
– The Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining higher-for-longer interest rates has notably strengthened the U.S. dollar across the major currencies.
– U.S. economic indicators remain generally resilient, with strong labor market data and persistent consumer spending.
– U.S. Treasury yields have surged, challenging riskier currencies like the AUD.
### China
– As Australia’s largest customer, China’s post-pandemic recovery woes are impacting Australia’s export revenues.
– Ongoing concerns around the Chinese property sector and slower-than-expected manufacturing growth have kept global risk appetites in check.
## Fundamental Drivers for AUD/USD – The Week Ahead
### 1. U.S. Economic Data
Several data releases from the United States could shape currency moves this week, including:
– U.S. Core PCE Price Index: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A reading above expectations could prompt further USD strength.
– ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey: Offers guidance on the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector, which can sway global risk sentiment.
– U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: A strong employment report could cement the case for continued Fed tightening or delay in rate cuts, supporting the greenback.
### 2. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy
– With headline inflation remaining above target, the RBA remains caught between curbing inflation and not stalling already sluggish growth.
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