The following is a rewritten and expanded version of the Forex analysis article originally authored by Tomasz Wiśniewski for DailyForex, titled “Pairs in Focus: 28th September – 3rd October 2025.”
Original author credit: Tomasz Wiśniewski – DailyForex.com
Source: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/09/pairs-in-focus-28th-september-03th-october-2025/234655
Comprehensive Weekly Technical Analysis of Key Forex Pairs: 28th September to 3rd October 2025
As we transition from September into October, key currency pairs are showing decisive movements either continuing recent trends or indicating the start of new ones. This week, a blend of risk sentiment, monetary policy expectations, and technical cues influenced price action across the board.
In this analysis, we highlight key technical developments in major and minor currency pairs, focusing on trend continuation signals and potential reversals heading into the first week of October 2025.
AUD/USD: Bullish Momentum Confirmed
The Australian Dollar continues to strengthen against the US Dollar as the pair breaks through medium-term resistance.
Key takeaways:
– AUD/USD completed a descending triangle pattern but reversed above the lower boundary, invalidating bearish expectations.
– Price surged above the 0.6520 resistance level, confirming a breakout from the recent consolidation zone.
– The pair is now trading well above the 0.6520 level, which has turned into new support.
– Daily moving averages, particularly the 20- and 50-day EMAs, have crossed in favor of the bulls, signaling a positive momentum shift.
Outlook:
– The next key resistance lies near 0.6670. A weekly close above this level could open the path for a move toward 0.6800 in the coming weeks.
– Traders should monitor a potential pullback toward 0.6520 to assess if it holds as support. This would further strengthen the bull case.
– As long as the pair remains above 0.6450, the short-term bullish bias stays intact.
AUD/JPY: Uptrend Resumes With Sharp Breakout
The Australian Dollar has also gained significantly against the Japanese Yen, reinforcing its strength across the board.
Notable developments:
– The pair formed an ascending triangle and finally broke out to the upside after several failed attempts.
– Friday’s close showed a strong bullish candle, indicating increased buying pressure.
– The breakout occurred above the 96.50 resistance, now turning into new support.
Forecast:
– As long as the AUD/JPY remains above 96.50, the uptrend is likely to continue.
– Immediate resistance is at 98.00, followed by a psychological barrier at 100.00.
– A dip below 96.00 could signal a false breakout, so caution is warranted for long positions.
EUR/USD: Bearish Breakdown Signals Trend Continuation
The Euro continues to weaken against the US Dollar, losing ground below a critical support level.
Recent price action:
– The pair has broken below the key support near 1.0610, confirming a descending triangle breakdown.
– This move was anticipated as the bears had been putting pressure on the pair for several sessions prior.
– The breakdown sets the tone for further declines in the medium term.
Technical perspective:
– The next significant support lies at 1.0500, and a break below that could expose 1.0400.
– Momentum indicators remain firmly bearish with the MACD and RSI confirming downward pressure.
– Monthly and weekly charts reflect a consistent downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
Projection:
– Unless EUR/USD reclaims the 1.0630 level on a sustained basis, the bearish bias remains dominant.
– Selling rallies may be the preferred approach for short-term traders.
GBP/CHF: Strong Bullish Breakout Suggests Continued Upside
The British Pound demonstrated
Read more on EUR/USD trading.