**AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis and Signal – September 30, 2025**
*Adapted and expanded from the original article by Adam Lemon at DailyForex.com.*
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## Overview: AUD/USD Treads Water Amid Dollar Strength
The AUD/USD currency pair has faced continuous pressure as the US dollar’s persistent strength weighs on most major currencies. With factors including robust US economic data, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting global sentiment, the Australian dollar has struggled to find significant upward momentum. Technical indicators point to pivotal areas for both bulls and bears as September comes to a close.
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## Key Factors Impacting the AUD/USD
A well-rounded analysis of AUD/USD demands attention to the broader economic backdrop as well as specific market signals. The following influencers are currently most relevant:
### US Dollar Dynamics
– **Federal Reserve Policy:** Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations in the US continue to boost the greenback.
– **Positive Data:** Recent releases, such as solid GDP growth and steady labor market numbers, have underpinned the dollar’s strength.
– **Investor Sentiment:** Appetite for safe-haven assets remains elevated given lingering geopolitical and recession fears.
### Australian Economic Factors
– **Interest Rate Outlook:** The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled a cautious stance, limiting the Australian dollar’s upside potential.
– **Commodities:** Weakness in key commodities, specifically iron ore, hampers AUD’s appeal as a resource-linked currency.
– **China’s Economy:** Australia’s reliance on China means slower-than-expected Chinese economic recovery has knock-on effects.
### Global Risk Factors
– **Flight to Safety:** Any surge in risk aversion sees investors flocking to the US dollar, usually at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD.
– **Trade Tensions/Geopolitical Risks:** Ongoing trade disputes, especially between the US and China, create additional volatility.
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## Recent AUD/USD Price Action
– The pair has hovered around multi-month lows, largely remaining below significant technical resistance levels.
– Attempts to break higher have consistently stalled, with each rally met by renewed selling pressure.
– Traders have observed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the ongoing bearish trend.
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## Technical Analysis – Key Support and Resistance Levels
For traders, identifying critical technical levels is vital to situational awareness and trade planning.
### Support Levels
– **0.6350:** The most recent low, acting as a short-term floor. A decisive break below would signal intensified bearish momentum.
– **0.6300:** Psychological support; a breach could open the door toward 0.6250.
– **0.6200:** Longer-term support zone; if tested, it may attract bargain hunters.
### Resistance Levels
– **0.6430:** Immediate short-term resistance, coinciding with several failed breakout attempts.
– **0.6470:** A prior swing high and convergence point of moving averages on the 4-hour
Read more on AUD/USD trading.