**AUD/USD Wave Analysis: Technical Outlook and Market Prospects**
*Based on and expanded from analysis by Denislav Yordanov, ActionForex.com*
—
## Introduction: AUD/USD in Focus
The AUD/USD currency pair is a significant barometer for traders globally, especially given its close relationship to developments in the Asia-Pacific and its sensitivity to both fundamental news and technical price action. Technical wave analysis stands out as a preferred method for evaluating potential future movement, especially in a market influenced by trends and cyclical behavior. This comprehensive guide delves into current AUD/USD dynamics through wave analysis, sheds light on key support and resistance areas, explores potential scenarios, and supports findings with additional insights from market data and sources such as TradingView and Investing.com.
—
## Recent Price Action Overview
### Market Context
Over the past few weeks, the AUD/USD pair has demonstrated considerable volatility, driven by:
– Shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policies.
– Fluctuations in global risk sentiment.
– Commodity price adjustments, particularly in iron ore and other Australian exports.
– Interventions by large market participants near psychological price levels.
Recent sessions have seen the pair reacting to a confluence of technical and fundamental forces, causing notable intraday swings and breakouts above and below key moving averages.
—
## Wave Analysis: The Elliott Wave Perspective
Wave analysis, particularly the Elliott Wave theory, helps identify recurring market cycles and potential pivot zones. Denislav Yordanov’s recent analysis highlights an evolving structure that remains relevant for medium-term and short-term traders alike.
### Key Observations
1. **Medium-Term Elliott Wave Structure**
– The recovery from the late 2023 lows suggested the formation of a corrective upward movement, after an extensive multi-month downtrend.
– There are signs AUD/USD may have finalized a local bottom, with prospects of a complex correction, possibly an ABC zigzag pattern.
– A potential for a larger corrective wave opening the door for further upside toward untested resistance levels.
2. **Short-Term Wave Count**
– According to Yordanov, the immediate structure appears to be in the midst of a potential C wave, following completion of the A and B subwaves.
– The recent break above minor consolidation resistance and a local swing high strengthens the bullish bias in the near-term.
3. **Critical Technical Boundaries**
– The completion of wave B points to a short-term reversal zone, with the bulls taking charge if the pair holds above .6600.
– For bears to regain control, a firm push below .6600, possibly targeting .6540 or lower, is necessary.
### Sequence in Play
– **Wave A:** The initial up-move showing increased bull activity.
– **Wave B:** Retest and consolidation, confirming the bullish zone if it remains unbroken.
– **Wave C:** Potential extension offers room for higher targets, contingent on sustained upward momentum.
—
## Technical
Read more on AUD/USD trading.