**Australian Dollar Technical Setups: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and GBP/AUD Analysis**
*Adapted and expanded from Justin McQueen’s analysis on Forex Factory. Supplemented with insight from DailyFX and other reputable sources.*
## Overview
The Australian dollar (AUD) has faced significant turbulence in global financial markets due to a combination of domestic challenges and external economic influences. Recent sessions have seen a mix of volatility drivers, including shifts in global sentiment, fluctuating risk appetite, ongoing discourse around monetary policy stances—especially between central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)—as well as evolving commodity prices. As traders position themselves for the second half of the year, three currency pairs stand out: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and GBP/AUD.
This article presents an in-depth technical analysis of these pairs, drawing on support and resistance levels, chart patterns, and momentum signals. It also situates the AUD in the broader fundamental context.
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## AUD/USD: Critical Levels as Downtrend Persists
### Macro Context
The Australian dollar versus the US dollar (AUD/USD) has been trending lower, reflective of the divergence between RBA and Fed monetary policy. The Fed has maintained a hawkish stance due to persistent inflation alongside strong US economic data, while the RBA has adopted a more cautious tone as Australia’s inflation appears to have peaked and labor market data show signs of softening. Meanwhile, China’s lackluster economic recovery limits upside potential for Australia, given their status as key commodity trading partners.
### Technical Setup
– **Support Levels:**
– 0.6580: Recent local lows, forming the first key support.
– 0.6500: Psychological round number and the lowest point from early June.
– 0.6460: Multi-month support, significant in bounces earlier this year.
– **Resistance Levels:**
– 0.6700: Near-term resistance, with price having tested this area multiple times.
– 0.6760 to 0.6780: Upper resistance band, which capped advances in May.
– 0.6820: Longer-term resistance corresponding with pre-2024 selloff range.
– **Momentum and Trend:**
– Recent sessions show AUD/USD unable to break sustainably above 0.6700, indicating ongoing selling interest.
– Moving averages (20-day, 50-day) remain above current price action, confirming a bearish bias in the short to medium term.
– RSI (14-period) is hovering in the mid-40s, suggesting neutral momentum but with a bearish tilt.
– **Chart Patterns:**
– The pair remains within a descending channel, defined by lower highs and lower lows.
– Multiple attempts to break out from the channel have failed, reinforcing the path of least resistance to the downside.
### Key Takeaways
– Bears
Read more on AUD/USD trading.