**Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/AUD**
*Original analysis by David Song via Forex Factory. Additional information included for depth and market context.*
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be a focus of attention for traders, influenced by both domestic economic indicators and the global macro environment. Against the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and British Pound (GBP), price action for key AUD pairs is offering significant technical insights. This comprehensive review covers major setups for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and GBP/AUD, examining technical levels, recent action, and broader market implications.
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## AUD/USD Price Action Analysis
The AUD/USD pair has attracted considerable interest as traders assess the prospects of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy and US monetary conditions. Recent moves provide a pivotal backdrop for technical analysis.
### Key Technical Developments
– **Support & Resistance**: AUD/USD bounced from recent lows, holding above 0.6600 and approaching resistance near 0.6700, which has proven challenging to break.
– **Range Patterns**: For most of the past month, price has oscillated between 0.6570 (support) and 0.6700 (resistance), reflecting market indecision.
– **Indicators**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the midline (50), indicating neither bullish nor bearish extremes. A move above or below this level could validate the next directional bias.
– **Moving Averages**:
– 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is serving as immediate support.
– 200-day SMA, near 0.6550, provides a major longer-term reference point for trend traders.
### Chart Patterns and Setups
– **Bullish Scenario**: Breakout and close above 0.6700 could trigger a push towards 0.6800 and beyond, provided momentum and volume support the move.
– **Bearish Risk**: Failure to sustain above 0.6600 may open a path back to 0.6550 and, potentially, 0.6500.
– **Consolidation**: Sustained sideways action within the 0.6570-0.6700 zone would suggest continued indecision, likely awaiting new fundamental catalysts.
### Fundamental Influences
– RBA’s cautious policy stance, reluctance to hike rates aggressively, and persistent inflation concerns weigh on the Australian Dollar.
– US Dollar movement hinges on Federal Reserve rhetoric and global risk sentiment. Signs of rate cuts or risk aversion could boost the greenback, pressuring AUD/USD lower.
– Domestic data, such as employment and CPI readings, may spark volatility in the coming sessions.
### Additional Insights from Other Sources
According to a recent analysis by the National Australia Bank (NAB), the Australian Dollar remains particularly sensitive to commodity market developments — especially iron ore and coal prices, given Australia’s export dependency. A rebound in Chinese economic
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