**Australian Dollar Price Action Analysis: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/AUD Setups**
*Adapted and expanded from material originally by Rich Dvorak, Forex Factory.*
The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced dynamic price action in recent trading sessions, influenced by shifting global risk sentiment, evolving expectations about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook, and ongoing US dollar strength. In this expanded analysis, we delve deeply into three primary AUD currency pairs—AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, and GBP/AUD—to explore the broader technical landscape, uncover potential trading setups, and examine relevant fundamentals impacting market direction. For a comprehensive perspective, we also incorporate additional insights sourced from industry analysts and current macroeconomic developments.
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### Overview of Recent AUD Performance
– **Macro Factors Driving AUD:**
The Australian dollar’s trajectory has been shaped by a combination of domestic drivers, especially inflation data and the RBA’s stance, and international currents, namely the fluctuating US dollar and risk appetites linked to global growth concerns.
– **Central Bank Watch:**
The RBA has adopted a balanced tone in its recent communications. While inflation remains above the 2 to 3 percent target, policymakers have shown caution amid signs of economic slowdown.
Market participants now price in a greater probability that the tightening cycle could be over for Australia, especially if inflation data continues to moderate. The US Federal Reserve’s policy, in contrast, remains restrictive, underpinning US dollar bids and steepening downside risks for AUD crosses.
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## AUD/USD Technical and Fundamental Outlook
### Recent Price Action
– **Downward Trajectory:**
AUD/USD has registered a notable pullback from its early 2024 highs, with the pair breaching several pivotal support zones as risk sentiment soured and US yields climbed. As of the latest session, AUD/USD hovers near 0.6570, marking multi-week lows.
– **Drivers:**
– Sustained US dollar strength on robust economic data
– Disappointment on Chinese growth figures, affecting Australia’s export profile
– Evolving RBA expectations with less hawkish leanings
### Technical Breakdown
– **Daily Chart View:**
– The 0.6600 area has acted as an anchor, with breakdowns below this threshold accelerating bearish momentum.
– Immediate support arises at 0.6565 and, if lost, at the round number of 0.6500.
– The 200-day simple moving average floats above, reinforcing resistance near 0.6650 to 0.6670.
– RSI indicators hint at the pair moving into oversold territory, but no bullish divergence yet confirms a reversal.
– **Key Observations:**
– Short-term sellers remain in control unless the pair recovers above 0.6650.
– The late April swing low at 0.6460 is a critical inflection point; a weekly close
Read more on AUD/USD trading.