Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Forecast Update for October 1, 2025
Based on the analysis originally published on Economies.com
Overview
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to exhibit a bearish trajectory as of October 1, 2025. The prevailing downward trend is supported by persistent negative pressure from key technical indicators. The pair’s price remains entrenched below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), underlining seller dominance in the short-to-medium term. This analysis expands on the original insights published by Economies.com, offering a detailed examination of the current EUR/USD market dynamics, potential scenarios, resistance and support levels, and the impact of broader macroeconomic variables.
Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is under consistent selling pressure, with bears maintaining control over price direction. The downward inclination continues in response to sustained movement below the critical EMA50 level. This EMA has acted as a dynamic resistance barrier, rejecting several attempted rebounds over recent weeks.
Key technical observations include:
– Current price is suppressed below both the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, signaling strength in the bearish trend.
– RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains in neutral to slightly oversold territory, suggesting limited bullish momentum and room for further declines.
– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator continues to show a widening gap between the signal line and MACD line under the zero axis, reinforcing the downward bias.
– Price action is forming lower highs and lower lows, solidifying the continuation of a long-term declining structure.
Support and Resistance Levels
A precise understanding of the key support and resistance zones is critical for assessing potential price behavior in the near term. Based on recent trading patterns:
– Resistance Levels:
– 1.0735: The first major resistance level. A daily close above this level could suggest the first sign of trend exhaustion.
– 1.0800: Round psychological level and historically an area of price congestion.
– 1.0865: Corresponds with the 50-day EMA, a major threshold that would suggest a potential shift if breached.
– Support Levels:
– 1.0580: Immediate and active support; it has halted downward movement on multiple occasions.
– 1.0500: A strong psychological and historical support level which may act as a potential rebound zone in case of extended declines.
– 1.0465: A multi-month low, representing the final level before opening the door toward deeper corrections.
Trend Direction and Forecast
The current price trajectory exhibits notable adherence to a downward sloping channel, confirming continuation of bearish momentum. Unless there is a decisive break above key resistance levels—particularly the 1.0735 zone—the path of least resistance is expected to remain downward.
The immediate forecast maintains that:
– Bearish influence remains active as long as price sustains below the 1.0735 benchmark.
– The pair is likely to test 1.0580 in the near term, potentially extending toward 1.0500 if bearish strength persists.
– Any attempts at recovery are expected to be muted and potentially short-lived unless fueled by new economic catalysts or a clear breach above resistance thresholds.
Economic Influences and Sentiment Drivers
Multiple macroeconomic factors and geopolitical elements continue to exert influence on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Understanding these forces is crucial in interpreting the broader outlook and risk exposure for the pair.
Key economic elements shaping EUR/USD behavior include:
1. US Dollar Strength
– The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a firm bid tone above the 105.00 mark.
– Resilience in US macro indicators, including labor data and inflation prints, has buttressed dollar demand.
– Comments and posturing from Federal Reserve officials further indicate a high-for-longer stance on interest rates, elevating dollar support.
2. European Economy Headwinds
– The Eurozone continues to struggle with revise-down growth forecasts, weak manufacturing activity, and declining consumer
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