**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis and Forecast: Comprehensive Breakdown**
*Based on analysis by ActionForex and augmented with additional insights from widely-cited forex sources.*
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### Executive Summary
The Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the United States Dollar (USD) currency pair has been a focal point for traders given its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, Chinese economic data, and the differing monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve. This detailed report dissects the latest weekly developments, evaluates technical indicators, and provides forward-looking commentary, blending information from ActionForex and other authoritative forex analysis sources.
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## Recent Performance Overview
Last week, AUD/USD exhibited pronounced volatility amid a swirl of global macroeconomic events:
– **Consolidation Phase:** The pair largely traded within a range, exhibiting no clear decisive trend over the past week.
– **Downward Pressure:** Recent price action remains heavy, particularly after failing to sustain gains above the 0.6700 handle.
– **Short-term Recovery Attempts:** Intraday rallies were persistently capped by resistance near previous highs, showing a lack of follow-through upside momentum.
– **Data Drivers:** Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and Australian employment data weighed on AUD sentiment. Meanwhile, US dollar strength was underpinned by robust US retail sales and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.
– **Risk Appetites:** Stock market volatility and uncertainty around US interest rates also translated to indecision among AUD/USD traders.
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## Technical Analysis
### Weekly Chart Assessment
– **Trend Structure:** The pair remains in a correctional downward move from the peak set at 0.6894.
– **Support Levels:**
– Immediate support is identified around 0.6550, corresponding to recent swing lows.
– Next critical support is the 0.6464/0.6452 area, representing the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the January-April rally and lows from April.
– **Resistance Levels:**
– A ceiling is established near 0.6705, aligned with prior rejection points.
– A break above the 0.6713 level is necessary for any sustainable bullish reversal.
– **Momentum Indicators:**
– Weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends close to neutral, reflecting a lack of clear directional conviction.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals are modestly bearish, suggesting the balance of risk remains tilted to the downside.
### Daily and Intraday Technicals
– **20-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA):** Price currently oscillates around the 20-day EMA, which acts as a short-term pivot.
– **50-Day and 200-Day SMAs:** The pair remains trapped below both averages, a bearish technical sign.
– **Key Candlestick Patterns:**
– Recent candles exhibit long upper wicks, hinting at persistent selling pressure on rallies.
– **Fibonacci Retracement Zones:**
– Near
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