**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis: June 2024 Outlook and Strategic Implications**
*Based on the original article by ActionForex and complemented with broader Forex market insights.*
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### Introduction
The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD), typically referred to as the AUD/USD currency pair, is closely watched by traders due to its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and interest rate differentials. As of June 2024, the pair is exhibiting significant technical and fundamental developments that could shape its trajectory for the coming weeks.
This article delivers an in-depth weekly analysis of AUD/USD, exploring both technical indicators and macroeconomic influences. It includes expanded commentary and actionable insights relevant to current market dynamics, with additional information drawn from industry sources such as ForexLive, DailyFX, and other professional market commentaries. The original framework and analysis stem from ActionForex’s recent publication.
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### Recap: Recent AUD/USD Performance
Over the past few weeks, AUD/USD has seen a moderately bearish tone, reflecting a mix of external and domestic factors:
– The US Dollar has benefited from persistent expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer.
– In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a relatively dovish stance, causing the rate differential to weigh on the AUD.
– Rebounding commodity prices, particularly iron ore, have offered some short-term support for the Australian Dollar, but sustained risk aversion and global economic slowdown concerns remain significant headwinds.
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### Technical Overview: Weekly Chart Evaluation
The pair commenced the week with a modest downward bias following a failed attempt to surpass established resistance levels. Technical patterns and momentum signals offer valuable clues about potential price action ahead.
**Key Technical Levels:**
– **Immediate Support:** 0.6572 (last week’s interim bottom)
– **Immediate Resistance:** 0.6713 (recent swing high), with secondary resistance around 0.6870
– **Trendline Support:** Upward sloping support from 0.6361 (March low), currently intersecting near 0.6560
– **Long-term Support:** 0.6450 and 0.6361
**Momentum and Indicators:**
– **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** Hovering around neutral zones, reflecting consolidation rather than clear overbought or oversold conditions
– **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** Bearish crossover on the daily chart, confirming downside momentum
– **Moving Averages:** The 50-day moving average aligns close to 0.6630, acting as dynamic support/resistance; the 200-day moving average provides long-term directional guidance
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### Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUD/USD pair’s mid-term trajectory will largely be dictated by price behavior around the 0.6570-0.6550 support zone:
– **Bearish Scenario:** A decisive break below 0.6550 could pave the way for an extension toward 0.
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