**Pairs in Focus: 12th to 17th October 2025**
*Original Author: Adam Lemon (DailyForex.com)*
The foreign exchange market is heading into a pivotal period as the middle of October approaches. With US inflation figures, FOMC minutes, and key economic releases from other global powerhouses set for the calendar, major currency pairs are poised at critical technical junctures. Below we delve into the technical outlook and strategic focus for major pairs from 12th to 17th October 2025, examining support, resistance, trends, and potential scenario triggers.
**EUR/USD: Bear Trend Faces a Test at Multi-Month Lows**
The euro-dollar pair continues to be pinned down by persistent US dollar strength, driven by resilient US economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Despite periodic attempts to rally, EUR/USD price action remains confined within a well-defined bearish channel that has dominated since April.
*Key Technical Factors:*
– **Support Levels:** Immediate support resides at 1.0450, the October low and also a significant level from earlier in the year. Further supports are seen near 1.0400 and then the 2023 low at 1.0330, marking multi-year baselines.
– **Resistance Levels:** The immediate resistance is the psychological round number at 1.0500, with further resistance at 1.0550 and a more meaningful barrier at 1.0615, which represents the upper limit of the current bear channel.
– **Trend Indicators:** Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is leaning into oversold territory but has not yet signaled a sustainable reversal. Moving averages (20, 50, and 200 days) are aligned in a bearish sequence, emphasizing downside dominance.
*Strategic Focus:*
– Traders should monitor price action closely around 1.0450. A convincing break lower would cement the prevailing downside momentum, targeting the lower supports at 1.0400 and 1.0330.
– However, any sustained move above 1.0500, especially if accompanied by a shift in US data or dovish FOMC clues, could trigger a corrective rally, opening a path towards 1.0550 and 1.0615.
– The week’s risk calendar with US CPI and Eurozone Data will be the defining driver for the next directional phase.
**GBP/USD: Sterling Struggles with Recession Fears**
The pound-dollar pair remains under pressure as the UK economy oscillates perilously close to stagnation. Weakening domestic consumption and consumer confidence, along with uncertainty around future Bank of England actions, have limited the pound’s upside.
*Key Technical Factors:*
– **Support Levels:** 1.2100 (recent swing low), followed by 1.2035 and 1.2000, with the latter a strong psychological anchor that has repeatedly attracted buying interest this year.
– **Resistance Levels:** Initial resistance at 1.2250, then 1.2315, which aligns with a prior double top and the descending 50-day moving average.
– **Chart Patterns:** GBP/USD remains in a descending channel on the daily time frame. Bearish momentum has been consistent, though the pace of the drop has slowed near current support.
– **Momentum:** RSI is neutral to bearish. MACD gives no early reversal warnings yet.
*Strategic Focus:*
– The 1.2100/1.2000 area will likely act as a critical battleground. A daily close under 1.2000 would validate further declines, potentially exposing 1.1840 as the next support zone.
– If bulls can reclaim and hold 1.2250, the pair may attract short-covering towards the higher resistance at 1.2315.
– Watch for surprises in UK growth, employment, or inflation data to provide near-term volatility.
**USD/JPY: Bulls
Read more on GBP/USD trading.