Title: Forex Pairs in Focus: Outlook for the Week of October 12–17, 2025
Original analysis by: DailyForex.com
The foreign exchange market is experiencing heightened volatility as we head into the trading week of October 12–17, 2025. Several major currency pairs are reacting to shifting economic indicators, central bank commentary, and global political developments. Traders are closely monitoring technical levels and macroeconomic events for trading signs across the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar. This article provides a technical and fundamental outlook on key currency pairs for the week based on the insights shared in the original DailyForex report, which has been expanded for clarity and depth using additional context.
Key Themes Driving Forex Markets This Week:
– Divergent monetary policies among major central banks.
– Anticipation of mid-October economic data releases including CPI, retail sales, and employment data.
– Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
– Risk sentiment shifts influenced by U.S. bond yields and equity performance.
Let’s dive into the technical and fundamental outlook for the key pairs in focus for the week of October 12–17, 2025.
EUR/USD Outlook: Testing Critical Resistance Levels
The EUR/USD pair has rebounded in recent sessions, driven by a slightly dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and resilient economic data from the Eurozone.
– The pair is trading around the 1.0700–1.0750 range, attempting to break above a key short-term resistance.
– Technical resistance sits at 1.0760 (early October swing high), followed by 1.0830 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July to September decline).
– A break above these levels could push the pair toward the 1.0900 psychological level.
Key fundamental drivers:
– Recent comments from ECB policymakers suggest rate hikes are likely paused for the remainder of 2025 given inflation cooling toward the 2% target.
– The U.S. CPI print on October 16 may introduce fresh volatility. A soft reading could weaken USD and push EUR/USD higher.
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment data (due October 15) may support EUR if business confidence improves.
Bearish scenario:
– If EUR/USD fails to clear 1.0760 resistance, the next support is near 1.0620, followed by 1.0500 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Trader sentiment remains cautiously bullish short-term as the euro claws back recent losses.
GBP/USD: Bullish Sentiment Faces Key Resistance
GBP/USD ended last week on a positive note near the 1.2300 level, despite lingering concerns about the UK economy’s sluggish growth. The coming week is crucial as the pair tests significant resistance levels while navigating an uncertain macro backdrop.
Technical view:
– GBP/USD is trading within a short-term upward channel on the 4-hour chart.
– Immediate resistance lies at 1.2370, aligning with the 50-day EMA and the mid-September consolidation zone.
– A successful breakout may lead to 1.2430–1.2500, an area that was key support in August before breaking down.
– On the downside, support lies at 1.2215 and then 1.2100.
Fundamental factors:
– UK GDP data due on October 13 is expected to show weak growth or stagnation.
– Bank of England’s next rate decision isn’t until November, but this week’s economic data could shift market expectations.
– Inflation remains sticky above 5%, challenging the BoE’s mandate.
While the technical setup shows room for further upside, macroeconomic headwinds may limit gains unless upcoming data surprises to the upside.
USD/JPY: Surge Continues But BoJ Intervention Threat Looms
The USD/JPY pair has soared in recent weeks, with the dollar appreciating on rising U.S. Treasury yields while the yen weakens due to
Read more on USD/CAD trading.