**Weekly Forex Forecast: EUR/USD, Oil, Gold, Silver Outlook**
*Based on the analysis by Gary Howes, originally published on FXStreet.com*
In the latest edition of the Weekly Forex Forecast, markets continue to react to a complex global environment shaped by monetary policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and changing macroeconomic indicators. This analysis breaks down the likely direction for key assets: the euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD), crude oil, gold (XAU/USD), and silver (XAG/USD). The aim is to equip traders and investors with insights for the week ahead.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of these asset classes based on recent technical and fundamental analysis.
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## EUR/USD Outlook: Waiting for Direction Amid Uncertainty
EUR/USD traded mostly sideways last week, as market participants digest mixed economic signals from both sides of the Atlantic. Investors are closely watching central banks’ monetary policy language for clues about future rate paths.
### Key Drivers:
– Mixed economic data from Europe has added uncertainty to the euro’s direction.
– The Federal Reserve continues to maintain rates at elevated levels while hinting at the possibility of continued tightening depending on inflationary pressures.
– The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled it may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle.
– The recent weakness in eurozone PMIs adds to downside risks for the euro.
### Technical Analysis:
– Support Levels:
– Initial support at 1.0500
– Stronger support near 1.0440, where previous buying activity was observed
– Resistance Levels:
– Immediate resistance occurs around 1.0630
– Further resistance lies at 1.0700
### Forecast:
– Short-term bias: Neutral to slightly bearish
– The pair remains confined within technical boundaries and lacks strong directional momentum.
– A clear break below 1.0500 could open the door to further losses toward 1.0400, while a break above 1.0700 may trigger a broader rally.
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## Crude Oil (WTI): Geopolitical Risks Fuel Volatility
Crude oil prices saw heightened volatility last week, driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and concerns over supply constraints. Near-term price fluctuations will remain heavily influenced by global demand sentiment and potential supply disruptions.
### Key Influences:
– Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Israel-Hamas conflict have raised fears of supply disruptions.
– A mixed global economic outlook is influencing demand-side expectations.
– Recent reports suggest some moderation in US crude inventories, which supports prices.
– OPEC+ remains committed to output cuts, limiting downside for oil.
### Technical Analysis:
– Support Levels:
– $83 per barrel remains near-term support
– Stronger support lies at $81, a region where buyers typically emerge
– Resistance Levels:
– Initial resistance at $87 per barrel
– Breakout level near $89, with potential to test $90 on momentum
### Forecast:
– Near-term bias: Bullish
– As long as geopolitical risks remain elevated, oil prices are likely to stay supported.
– Investors should monitor developments in conflict zones, as even minor disruptions could have significant implications for pricing.
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## Gold (XAU/USD): Safe-Haven Rally Continues
Gold has seen a strong rally driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. The metal resumed its bullish trend after consolidating in previous weeks. Central bank policies and geopolitical tensions are the primary catalysts.
### Key Drivers:
– Renewed interest in safe-haven assets due to increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
– The Federal Reserve’s more cautious tone on monetary tightening has supported gold.
– Inflation data continues to play a role in shaping interest rate expectations.
– Weaker global growth forecasts support demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
### Technical Analysis:
– Support Levels:
– Near-term support is at $1,920 per ounce
– Key support
Read more on EUR/USD trading.