**EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Recovery Off Last Week’s Low with Focus on 100-Hour Moving Average**
*Authored by Greg Michalowski. Rewritten and expanded version providing deeper insights and analysis relevant to forex traders.*
The EUR/USD currency pair has recently shown signs of a technical rebound after bouncing off a key support level established last week. This movement came amid fluctuations driven mainly by evolving interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and broader risk sentiment in the global markets. Traders watching this major currency pair closely now turn their attention to next resistance levels, notably the 100-hour moving average, as an important technical barrier.
In this detailed analysis, we will break down the pair’s recent price action, identify critical technical levels, and examine what may lie ahead for the EUR/USD in the short and medium term.
## Recent EUR/USD Price Action Overview
– Over the past week, EUR/USD experienced renewed downward pressure that saw it fall to a low of approximately 1.0523, a level not seen since the prior week.
– After reaching that support level, the pair staged a modest bounce, indicating potential buyer interest at lower levels and suggesting the possibility of a short-term bottom.
– This rebound has brought the pair close to testing the 100-hour moving average, currently acting as near-term resistance in the pair’s recovery attempt.
– The currency remains trapped in a broader downtrend on higher time frames but shows some technical signals of consolidation near weekly lows.
## Key Technical Levels to Watch
1. **Immediate Support Zones:**
– The recent bounce came from around 1.0523, which is considered a short-term swing low.
– This level also aligns with the bottom recorded early last week, making it a reinforced support floor for the time being.
– Breaking below this level on strong volume could renew downward momentum toward the 1.0500 psychological handle or lower.
2. **100-Hour Moving Average (Currently at 1.0568–1.0570 Area):**
– As of the latest trading sessions, the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) presents the next significant technical resistance.
– The pair has approached but has not yet breached this barrier, indicating traders are watching closely to determine the strength of the recovery.
– A decisive breakout above the 100-hour moving average would shift short-term bias to the upside and could open further gains toward higher resistance levels.
3. **Next Resistance Levels (If 100-Hour MA Is Cleared):**
– 1.0585 to 1.0600: Previous intraday congestion and pivot zone.
– 1.0630–1.0650: Contains both Fib retracement zones and prior high-volume price areas.
– Above 1.0650: Resistance turns more psychological, though longer-term downtrend lines begin to converge.
4. **Downtrend Line Resistance:**
– Extended from recent highs in early October, the descending trendline remains intact on the 4-hour chart.
– The line intersects around the 1.0640–1.0660 region, further reinforcing resistance near that area.
5. **50% Retracement Level of Recent Decline:**
– The move down from 1.0639 (recent high) to the 1.0523 low provides a midpoint around 1.0581.
– This midpoint lies just above the 100-hour moving average, and breaking above it would support bullish continuation.
## Price Structure Analyses and Indicators
Several tools and indicators can be used to dissect the recent price action and better understand the potential directional bias in EUR/USD trading.
– **Fibonacci Retracements** applied on the recent downswing help identify key inflection levels. The 50% mark at 1.0581 confluences with a past horizontal level, increasing the importance of a breakout.
– **Moving Averages** are pivotal
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