USD/JPY Daily Outlook – Analysis by ActionForex (Expanded Version)
Original source: ActionForex article titled “USD/JPY Daily Outlook,” available at https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/615731-usd-jpy-daily-outlook-2250/. The analysis belongs to ActionForex and has been expanded and rewritten here for informational purposes.
Overview
The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained a largely consolidative pattern as it attempts to break key resistance levels after a broad rally seen in late trading sessions. Markets are attentively watching price behavior around significant levels to determine whether upcoming movements could indicate a bullish continuation or deeper correction.
This daily outlook dissects the current price structure, confirms trend pattern signals, and examines critical technical levels as the U.S. dollar pushes against the Japanese yen. Moving averages, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels are all considered to provide a broader understanding of potential trade setups.
Current Price Behavior
The most recent candlestick patterns reveal a dip in upward momentum, though the overall structure remains notably firm. The pair remains poised to test upper boundaries despite temporary retracements, which are relatively shallow in nature.
– USD/JPY is currently trading just below a major resistance level around 157.70
– Short-term consolidative actions are being interpreted by traders as potential accumulation zones
– The price still lies well above the rising 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflective of sustained bullish strength
Technical Indicators
Several technical indicators highlight key trading considerations:
1. Moving Averages
– The 55-day EMA serves as key dynamic support and currently aligns near 155.30
– Price has remained consistently above the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a long-term bullish bias
– Any break below the 55-day EMA may trigger larger corrective moves, although such breaks have held modest impact thus far
2. RSI Momentum
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers within neutral territory, suggesting no extreme overbought or oversold condition
– Current RSI levels suggest room for further upside before becoming technically overextended
– Lack of divergence between RSI and price action implies trend continuation is still favored
3. MACD Signal
– The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows mildly positive momentum, but with flattening histogram bars
– MACD line remains above the signal line, reinforcing the lingering upward momentum
– Should a bearish crossover occur, it would likely coincide with a support test near 155.00
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The technical framework is currently shaped by several well-defined zones that need careful observation:
– Immediate Resistance:
– 157.70 represents a near-term ceiling. A break above this level would likely serve as a catalyst for further bullish extension
– The next horizontal resistance area lies near 160.00, a psychological level and round-number resistance
– Beyond 160.00, markets are eyeing the 161.80 Fibonacci projection of previous rallies
– Immediate Support:
– 156.00 is acting as a key short-term level where bulls tend to step in on dips
– Deeper support lies at the 155.30 area, aligning with the 55-day EMA
– Below that, 153.00 emerges as the structural base, which, if broken, would begin to alter the broader bullish outlook
Near-Term Strategy Implications
The price structure indicates that any downside will likely remain limited unless rate-sensitive rhetoric or unexpected policy shifts emerge from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan.
– Buy-on-dip strategies remain favorable given the strong uptrend structure above 155.00
– Bulls are watching for a daily close above 157.70 to confirm renewed momentum
– Deeper corrections toward 155.00/155.30 may offer better risk-reward profiles for long reentries
Explore this further here: USD/JPY trading.