USDCAD Forecast: Analyzing the Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment as of October 17, 2025
Original article by: Christopher Lewis for DailyForex
Link: [DailyForex – USDCAD Forecast October 17, 2025](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/usdcad-forecast-17-october-2025/235627)
As we move deeper into the fourth quarter of 2025, the USDCAD currency pair continues to exhibit notable price action that reflects both technical factors and changes in macroeconomic indicators relevant to both the United States and Canada. The USD/CAD pair, which tracks the value of the US dollar (USD) against the Canadian dollar (CAD), is being carefully watched by forex traders due to the relative strength of the greenback and the influence of crude oil prices on the Canadian economy.
On October 17, 2025, technical analyst Christopher Lewis presented his outlook for the USDCAD pair, emphasizing potential price movements and critical levels to watch. This article expands on Lewis’s original analysis to provide a detailed 1,000-word breakdown of the situation with added market context and recent developments from other expert sources.
Overview of Market Conditions
The USDCAD pair is typically influenced by:
– Divergent interest rate policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC)
– Commodity price fluctuations, especially crude oil, a key Canadian export
– Risk sentiment in global markets
– Geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Canada trade policies
– Economic data releases such as GDP, employment, and inflation metrics
Christopher Lewis highlighted that the pair has recently attempted to rally, fueled largely by the strength of the US dollar, which has been supported by robust US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish tone. However, overhead resistance around 1.3650 presents a potential barrier to further upward movement.
Technical Analysis Recap
Lewis’s October 17, 2025 analysis focused on several key technical factors:
– The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently acting as dynamic support
– The market has recently bounced from a minor pullback at 1.3600, confirming bullish momentum
– The USDCAD is forming a potential bullish flag pattern, setting up for a breakout if resistance is cleared
From a technical standpoint, USDCAD appears to be in an uptrend, although not without challenges. Traders should be vigilant of sharp corrections given the pair’s sensitivity to oil prices and central bank rhetoric.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Traders should pay attention to the following price levels identified by Lewis and supported by other technical analyses:
Resistance Levels:
– 1.3650: The key resistance level currently being tested
– 1.3700: Psychological round number resistance and potential breakout zone
– 1.3850: Longer-term resistance in play since late Q3 2025
Support Levels:
– 1.3580: Minor support from recent consolidation range
– 1.3500: Strong technical and psychological support
– 1.3400: Previous swing low; a break below this could invalidate the current uptrend
EMA Watch:
– 50-Day EMA (~1.3550): Currently providing dynamic support
– 200-Day EMA (~1.3400): Long-term trend indicator to be monitored if price reverses
Current Price Action and Chart Patterns
Technical signals suggest the pair may be coiling for a move higher, particularly if risk sentiment deteriorates or the Federal Reserve reinforces its hawkish stance. The current consolidation near 1.3600 to 1.3650 may precede a breakout, which presents a tradable setup for bulls.
– The bullish flag pattern is developing, usually a continuation pattern that signals trend resumption
– RSI remains moderately bullish, not yet overbought, suggesting room to move higher
– Daily
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