**USD/JPY Weekly Technical Outlook**
*Adapted and expanded from original article by ActionForex.com*
The USD/JPY currency pair witnessed considerable movement over the past week, driven by a confluence of economic data, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical developments. The dollar showed resilience as yields on U.S. Treasury bonds climbed, fueling renewed interest from market participants. This outlook attempts to provide a comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis moving forward, delving into key support and resistance levels, sentiment factors, technical patterns, and macroeconomic influences that could shape future price action.
### Weekly Price Movement Summary
The USD/JPY pair retained a bullish stance throughout much of the week. However, despite breaking above short-term resistance levels, buyers lacked momentum to extend gains significantly beyond recent highs. As a result, the pair ended the week forming a support base near the lower side of the short-term range, reflecting a mild pullback within an ongoing uptrend.
Key weekly behavior includes:
– USD/JPY tried to build on previous gains toward recent multi-decade highs.
– Price tested resistance near 158.00 before easing back slightly.
– Dips remained supported near the 155.00 level, indicating sustained buying interest.
– The candlestick structure on the weekly chart indicates some hesitation but continued bullish bias.
### Technical Analysis
The outlook for USD/JPY remains tilted to the upside, but traders should note a few critical technical markers signaling where momentum could shift going forward.
#### Resistance Levels
Resistance levels act as psychological and chart-based hurdles that bulls will have to overcome before convincing further upside.
– **158.24**: Key near-term resistance, aligning with previous swing highs. A break above this level could open the path to revisit the 160.00 zone.
– **160.00**: Major psychological barrier, coupled with historical importance. Sustained trading above this range could indicate a breakout of longer-term magnitude.
– **161.75 and beyond**: In case of strong momentum and risk-on appetite, these levels could be tested, especially if U.S. yields continue to rise.
#### Support Levels
Support levels suggest areas where buyers may step in on pullbacks.
– **155.25**: Immediate support on a daily closing basis, aligning with short-term moving averages. This level held well last week.
– **153.50**: Intermediate support with prior consolidation behavior. A breach here may signal short-term trend reversal or deeper correction.
– **151.85**: Last meaningful swing low. If this zone is broken, it may invalidate the bullish outlook and spark aggressive selling.
– **149.00–150.00**: Psychological round number zone and important former resistance, now acting as extended support.
#### Chart Patterns and Indicators
– The broader trend since early 2023 remains bullish, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
– On the **Weekly Chart**, the candlestick pattern shows some exhaustion near highs, but not enough to suggest a full reversal.
– The **Daily RSI** (Relative Strength Index) remains above neutral but is not overbought, supporting continued upside potential.
– The **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)** remains in positive territory on daily and weekly timeframes, reinforcing bullish momentum.
– Price action remains within an upward-sloping **channel pattern** on the 4H and Daily timeframe, supporting the case for higher targeting.
### Elliott Wave Analysis
The possibility of an Elliott Wave structure supports the thesis that the pair may be in the final stages of a medium-term bullish impulse.
– Current wave development suggests we are potentially in **Wave v (final leg of the impulse)**.
– If this structure is correct, potential targets lie near or just above **161.80 Fibonacci extension** levels of previous waves.
– Once Wave v completes, a correction in the form of an **A-B-C retracement** could unfold, leading to a visible pause or pullback phase.
### Sentiment and
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