**AUD/USD Forex Analysis and Forecast: 28 October 2025**
*Original source: Adam Lemon, DailyForex.com*
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The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced heightened volatility in recent trading sessions against the US dollar (USD), fueled by economic data releases from both countries and shifting risk sentiment in global markets. The AUD/USD currency pair has shown a propensity for abrupt moves as market participants digest fresh data on inflation, employment, and central bank policy stances. This in-depth analysis outlines recent market behavior, key support and resistance levels, technical indicators, fundamental drivers, and a forecast for the pair’s potential direction.
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## Recent Market Overview
AUD/USD remains one of the most actively traded major pairs, offering a barometer of risk sentiment and commodity-related demand. Over the past week, the AUD/USD exchange rate experienced significant volatility:
– **Reaction to US Economic Data:**
– Stronger-than-expected US core inflation figures spurred a rally in the US dollar, putting downward pressure on AUD/USD.
– Upticks in US Treasury yields reminded traders of the possibility of prolonged restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
– Positive US GDP data also contributed to the greenback’s resilience.
– **Australian Data and RBA Policy:**
– Australian CPI readings came in higher than anticipated, raising the possibility of a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
– Labor market figures were robust, reinforcing expectations that the RBA may not cut interest rates as soon as investors previously thought.
– **Overall Risk Sentiment:**
– Global equity and commodity market swings influenced the risk-sensitive AUD.
– Geopolitical concerns, including developments in the Asia-Pacific region and fluctuating commodity prices, added to uncertainty.
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## Technical Analysis
### Price Action
After peaking above 0.6500 in early October, the AUD/USD pair encountered resistance and reversed to the downside. Sellers capitalized on a series of lower highs, pushing the pair toward support levels as bears asserted control. However, attempts to break below 0.6300 have been met with buying interest, suggesting the presence of strong demand near these levels.
### Key Support and Resistance Levels
– **Immediate Support Levels:**
– 0.6380: Previously a resistance area, now serves as first line of support.
– 0.6340: Acts as a crucial barrier; a sustained break below could invite further selling pressure.
– 0.6305: Key swing low for the year, marking a pivotal area for bulls and bears alike.
– **Resistance Levels:**
– 0.6455: Marks the high reached earlier in October, a significant obstacle for upward momentum.
– 0.6500: Psychological and technical resistance, a breakout above this level could fuel large-scale buying.
– 0.6550: A breach here could trigger a structural reversal to the upside.
### Technical Indicators
– **Moving Averages
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