**Chart of the Day: AUD/USD – In-Depth Analysis and Outlook**
*Based on the original analysis by [XTB Research Team, published October 29, 2025](https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/chart-of-the-day-audusd-29-10-2025)*
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## Introduction
The Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair is one of the most commonly traded pairs in the forex market, serving as an important barometer of risk sentiment and the economic trajectory of both Australia and the United States. As we approach the final months of 2025, investors and traders are closely analyzing various technical and fundamental indicators to gauge the direction of AUD/USD. Several evolving factors, including key central bank moves, commodity prices, and macroeconomic data, are expected to shape the pricing dynamics of this currency pair.
This expanded analysis delves into the latest developments impacting AUD/USD, explores technical chart patterns, reviews recent macroeconomic releases, and evaluates potential scenarios moving forward. Additional insights from leading financial sources complement the initial assessment, offering readers a comprehensive perspective on the outlook for the Aussie dollar.
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## Recent AUD/USD Performance: Key Drivers
### Key Themes Influencing AUD/USD
1. **Central Bank Policies**
– The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to set the monetary policy tone.
– Expectations regarding rate hikes or cuts are crucial triggers for currencies.
– Recent RBA statements have signaled a data-dependent approach, with inflation and labor market trends closely monitored.
– The Fed, on the other hand, has maintained a hawkish bias, reflecting the resilience of US economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
2. **Commodity Prices**
– Australia’s economy is highly influenced by commodity exports, particularly iron ore, coal, and gold.
– Fluctuations in global demand, especially from China, drive AUD valuation.
– Recent stabilization in iron ore prices and a tentative recovery in coal have supported the Aussie dollar.
3. **Risk Sentiment**
– AUD is perceived as a “risk-on” currency, closely tied to global market sentiment.
– Shifts in risk appetite, whether triggered by geopolitical tensions or economic slowdowns, impact capital flows into and out of Australia.
4. **Chinese Economic Data**
– China remains Australia’s biggest trading partner.
– Positive Chinese GDP growth and robust industrial output often boost demand for Australian exports, supporting AUD.
5. **US Dollar Strength**
– The US dollar index (DXY) remains a key reference for AUD/USD traders.
– As a safe-haven, surging DXY often weighs on riskier currencies like AUD, especially during periods of global uncertainty.
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## Macroeconomic Overview (October 2025)
– **Australia**
– Third-quarter GDP showed moderate expansion, beating expectations at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
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