Original article by: Christopher Lewis
Source: DailyForex.com
URL: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/eurusd-forecast-31-october-2025/236322
EUR/USD Technical Forecast – October 31, 2025
As of the final trading day of October 2025, the EUR/USD pair continues to reflect broader trends in macroeconomics and investor sentiment across global markets. The pair has seen a modest recovery during recent sessions, and traders are closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, European Central Bank (ECB) decisions, and economic indicators from both regions.
Overview of Recent Market Activity
• The EUR/USD has managed to regain upward momentum during late October, trading near the 1.0700 level.
• Despite recent bullish activity, the broader trend remains uncertain due to mixed signals from both the European and U.S. economies.
• Investors are focusing on upcoming macroeconomic data, including GDP figures, job reports, and inflation numbers expected next week.
Market Sentiment and Fundamental Factors
EUR/USD is largely being driven by macroeconomic fundamentals rather than technical momentum. The following factors are exerting significant influence on the currency pair:
• U.S. Federal Reserve Policy:
– Markets expect no further interest rate hikes from the Fed in the near term.
– Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential pause as inflation continues to show signs of cooling.
– U.S. economic growth remains relatively stable, bolstering the dollar while reducing the likelihood of aggressive policy tightening.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Strategy:
– The ECB remains cautious, facing a slower rate of economic growth within the eurozone.
– Inflation in the eurozone is still above target, but the rate of price increases is gradually slowing.
– Christine Lagarde and other ECB policymakers have hinted that the central bank may delay further tightening measures.
• Economic Data Releases:
– U.S. GDP data came in stronger than expected, supporting the dollar in recent sessions.
– On the European side, business surveys and industrial production reports suggest ongoing sluggishness in the eurozone economy.
– Inflation data from the euro area indeed shows progress toward the ECB’s 2 percent target, but not fast enough to warrant policy easing.
• Geopolitical Developments:
– Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and uncertainty in Middle Eastern regions create risk-off sentiment at times.
– Safe-haven flows occasionally benefit the U.S. dollar during sudden spikes in global fear or political instability.
Technical Analysis – Price Levels, Trends, and Key Indicators
Analysts examining the price action of EUR/USD are identifying critical levels for support and resistance as the market enters November. Both bulls and bears are eyeing these zones for confirmation of future directions.
• Current Price Behavior:
– EUR/USD is trading just under the 200-day moving average, hovering around 1.0700.
– This level has acted as a psychological barrier recently and determines broader sentiment bias.
– The market is attempting to break out of a consolidation range formed over the last few weeks.
• Support Levels:
– Initial support lies at 1.0630, which has acted as a floor during previous pullbacks.
– Further support is located at 1.0550, where the bulls have previously defended the market.
– A break below 1.0500 would be highly bearish and may trigger deeper selling pressure.
• Resistance Levels:
– Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0725, where selling pressure has emerged in the past.
– Strong resistance sits around the 1.0800 psychological and technical region, which aligns with the 200-day EMA.
– If the pair advances above 1.0850, bulls may aim for 1.100
Read more on EUR/USD trading.