EUR/USD Monthly Forecast – November 2025
Original Source: DailyForex.com, authored by Christopher Lewis
Link: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2025/10/eurusd-monthly-forecast-november-2025/236339
Overview
The EUR/USD pair has faced considerable volatility over the last several months. In November 2025, traders and investors will continue to pay close attention to macroeconomic indicators, central bank policy decisions, and geopolitical events that influence the currency markets. The pair currently trades within a well-defined range, and the direction for the rest of the year hinges primarily on the Federal Reserve’s and European Central Bank’s next moves.
Fundamental Outlook
The relationship between the euro and the US dollar in November 2025 is dictated primarily by central banks, inflation data, and economic performance on both sides of the Atlantic.
Key Fundamental Drivers:
• Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy:
– The Federal Reserve remains committed to a cautious approach after its tightening cycle in the previous year.
– Inflation in the US has shown signs of stabilizing, but the Fed is yet to declare victory.
– Market participants expect no immediate rate cuts, reinforcing USD strength.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Policy:
– The ECB’s stance remains dovish relative to the Fed.
– Weak economic data from Germany, France, and Italy have pressured the ECB to maintain accommodative policies.
– Inflation within the Eurozone is decelerating, prompting speculation about further stimulus or at least a delay in normalization.
• Economic Data Disparity:
– US economic indicators such as GDP growth, retail sales, and employment have outpaced those in the Eurozone.
– In contrast, the Eurozone struggles with sluggish productivity, consumer confidence issues, and political tensions—especially surrounding energy policy and fiscal integration debates.
• Geopolitical Concerns:
– The ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, combined with disputes within the EU regarding border policies and migration, continues to impact investor sentiment.
– In the US, the lead-up to the presidential election has fueled occasional market volatility.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains in a prolonged downtrend, albeit one that may be entering a consolidation phase during November. The pair is currently showing signs of stabilization around the 1.0500 level, a historically significant zone for buyers and sellers.
Monthly Support and Resistance Levels:
• Resistance Levels:
– 1.0700: Minor resistance caused by recent short-term rallies.
– 1.0950: A stronger resistance level that aligns with the 200-day EMA.
– 1.1200: Psychological level and the top boundary of a long-term downtrend channel.
• Support Levels:
– 1.0500: Recent low and crucial psychological support.
– 1.0200: Longer-term support attributed to previous market bottoms in late 2022 and early 2023.
– 1.0000: Parity level, considered a last line of defense for euro bulls.
Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators:
• Moving Averages:
– The 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA, confirming a prevailing bearish trend.
– Price has been respecting the 50-day EMA as dynamic resistance since late 2024.
• RSI Indicator:
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the monthly chart is oscillating around the 40 level.
– This reading implies bearish momentum, although not oversold, suggesting further downside room.
• MACD:
– The MACD line remains below the signal line and zero, indicating continued downward momentum.
Trading Strategies for November
Considering both fundamental and technical setups, EUR/USD may continue to face downward pressure. However, traders can
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