**AUD/USD Weekly Analysis: Forecast, Technical Outlook, and Key Influences**
*Based on analysis originally by ActionForex.com, plus additional research.*
—
### Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD), is a major focus for forex traders. Its movements provide insights into both commodity-linked currencies and the broader global risk environment. This weekly analysis explores the recent performance of AUD/USD, technical patterns and levels, fundamental influences, and expectations for the upcoming sessions.
—
### Recent Performance and Market Environment
AUD/USD ended the previous week on a generally negative note, reflecting a combination of risk aversion, mixed Australian data, and ongoing strength in the US dollar. Despite attempts at a recovery, sellers remained in control, underlining bearish momentum that has persisted over the past month.
– The pair faced resistance at several key levels throughout last week, failing to sustain any bullish breakout.
– The broader market environment showed a preference for the US dollar, underpinned by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and strong US economic data.
– Australian data releases—such as employment and retail sales—came in softer than expected, weighing further on the AUD.
– Ongoing concerns about China’s economic prospects—given Australia’s strong trade links—continue to pressure the Australian dollar.
—
### Weekly Chart Analysis
1. **Trend Structure**
– The AUD/USD pair has maintained a downward trajectory since late 2023.
– The recent rejection from resistance near 0.6700 confirmed the strength of sellers in this region.
2. **Support and Resistance**
– Immediate resistance lies at 0.6688, a level tested but not breached multiple times.
– The pair currently trades just above interim support at 0.6570.
– A stronger support layer is seen at 0.6460, which, if broken, could trigger a deeper decline.
– On the upside, stronger resistance is aligned near the 0.6740 region, where previous rallies have been capped.
3. **Moving Averages**
– The 20-week moving average continues to cap gains, guiding the pair lower.
– The 50-week and 200-week moving averages sit above the current price, reinforcing the overall bearish sentiment.
– Price action remains well below long-term averages, suggesting limited scope for a sustained recovery in the near-term.
4. **Indicators**
– The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered near the 40 mark, reflecting negative momentum but not yet reaching oversold territory.
– Weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) continues to trend below the signal line, another sign of entrenched bearish momentum.
– Volume indicators show increased selling interest on rallies, confirming that bulls lack conviction.
—
### Daily Chart and Short-Term Setup
1. **Short-Term Chart Patterns**
– The daily chart highlights multiple lower highs, consistent with
Read more on AUD/USD trading.