**EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook: Consolidation Continues Amidst Uncertain Direction**
*Based on analysis by ActionForex.com*
The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively steady over the past week, lacking clear directional momentum. After reversing from a high of 1.0915, the pair failed to generate sufficient downside traction to suggest a resumption of the prior downtrend. Instead, the price action continues to evolve within a defined range, signaling ongoing consolidation in the broader picture. Traders continue to search for signals that may provide clarity regarding the next sustained directional move.
This analysis takes into account technical indicators, recent price behavior, and primary support and resistance levels. Moving into the coming week, we focus on whether the pair will maintain its range or break out to signal a new trend phase.
**Weekly Performance Summary**
– EUR/USD traded lower last week but managed to remain above key support at 1.0723.
– The pair stayed within the prior three-week range, signaling ongoing consolidation.
– Resistance at 1.0915 capped earlier upside attempts.
– Momentum continues to weaken, but strong bearish commitment has yet to materialize.
**Near-Term Technical Analysis**
The near-term picture demonstrates a lack of conviction on both the bullish and bearish sides. Last week’s mildly bearish candle suggests sellers attempted to take control but failed to break critical support. The market has remained inside a broader consolidative pattern that began forming after the decline from 1.1138, reached in late December 2023.
Key levels to watch:
– Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0915. A sustained break above this would affirm the case for resuming the rally from 1.0600.
– Immediate support remains at 1.0723. A decisive close below this level could reexpose the 1.0600 low and potentially open the door for a deeper correction.
Bulls and bears remain locked in a contest of strength, as evidenced by alternating bullish and bearish candles on the daily and weekly timeframes. The current indecisiveness reflects market caution and a lack of strong economic catalysts to drive renewed momentum.
**Momentum Indicators**
– RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has been drifting sideways, holding in the range of 45 to 55. This neutral position underscores the lack of directional conviction in the short term.
– MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains flat, with the signal line converging close to the zero level, further supporting the idea of range trading.
– Moving Averages:
– The 20-day EMA is acting as a pivotal point. Price action repeatedly tests this level, without defining a clear stance above or below.
– The 50-day SMA has flattened, while the 200-day SMA remains upward sloping, suggesting long-term bias might still slightly favor bulls, albeit weakly.
**Medium-Term Technical Outlook**
On the medium-term (weekly) chart, the EUR/USD pair is developing within a broader correction after achieving a peak at 1.1138 in December 2023. Since then, a descending structure has been in place, with shorter-term rallies being sold off. However, notable support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0447 to 1.1138 advance, which lies around 1.0723, has repeatedly held.
Key technical elements:
– The pair is trapped within a descending triangle formation, capped by lower highs and supported by the strong horizontal zone around 1.0723.
– A weekly close below the 1.0723 barrier would suggest a stronger downside extension toward 1.0600, and potentially further to 1.0447, which is the starting point of the prior rally.
– A break of 1.0915 and past 1.1000 would negate bearish structure and confirm resumption of the broader uptrend.
If the pair continues to hold
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