**Weekly Technical Market Outlook: USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold & Equities**
Original article by David Song of FOREX.com
As global markets navigate economic data and central bank responses, traders are closely monitoring key technical levels across major asset classes. The US dollar continues to find strength in interest rate expectations and demand for safe-haven assets, while the euro and Canadian dollar face unique domestic and international pressures. In this comprehensive weekly outlook, we analyze price action and technical structures for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold (XAU/USD), and the S&P 500.
This expanded version of the original analysis by David Song of FOREX.com incorporates additional insights and market context to provide a deeper understanding of the current state of play in forex, commodities, and equity indices.
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## US Dollar Index (DXY): Building Momentum into November
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has been trading with upward momentum as traders assess the potential for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The dollar has gained ground in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and continued resilience in U.S. economic data.
**Key Points:**
– The DXY rebounded from support near the 100-day moving average (approximately 105.50), carving a series of higher lows that suggests bullish continuation.
– Bulls remain in control as long as price holds above 105.00, a psychological and technical pivot.
– The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized near 50, keeping directional bias neutral to bullish.
– Resistance targets:
– First resistance near 107.00, the October high.
– A break above this could open the door to 107.70–108.00 resistance zone.
– Support targets:
– Initial support remains around 105.50.
– A deeper pullback toward 104.20 could follow if the DXY slips below the 100-day moving average.
**Fundamental Context:**
The DXY’s performance continues to hinge on expectations about Fed policy. With inflation still persistently above the 2% target and labor markets remaining tight, traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of prolonged higher rates.
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## EUR/USD: Bearish Structure Dominates
The euro remains under pressure against the US dollar as weak economic data and cautious European Central Bank guidance keep the EUR/USD pair from recovering meaningfully. The technical structure paints a bearish picture for the pair in the near term.
**Technical Overview:**
– EUR/USD continues to respect a descending channel formed from the July high.
– The pair failed to break back above 1.0700 and remains capped by downward trendline resistance.
– Bearish momentum could push the pair toward 1.0500 with a potential extension to 1.0450 in the coming weeks.
– The RSI has consistently stayed under 50, confirming lack of bullish momentum.
– Immediate resistance sits near 1.0650, followed by 1.0700.
– Key support levels to watch:
– 1.0530, a near-term swing low
– 1.0450, where bears may target a break if eurozone macro data continues to disappoint
**Fundamental Signals:**
– The eurozone economy faces stagnation, with Germany on the brink of recession and core inflation easing.
– ECB President Christine Lagarde has toned down hawkish rhetoric, reinforcing expectations that the ECB may pause rates in the coming quarters.
– Yield differentials favor the dollar, giving EUR/USD further downward momentum.
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## USD/CAD: Bullish Flag Forming
The Canadian dollar is under pressure as crude oil struggles to maintain recent gains and the Bank of Canada remains cautious in its monetary policy stance. USD/CAD appears to be forming a bullish flag, suggesting further strength for the greenback.
**Chart Patterns and Levels:**
– USD/CAD pulled back slightly but
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