EUR/USD Analysis – November 4, 2025
Original analysis by: Mahmoud Abdallah, DailyForex.com
The EUR/USD currency pair experienced downward pressure during the early November trading sessions. Despite recent attempts by bulls to regain control, bearish momentum continues to dominate, especially as the euro struggles under the weight of broader macroeconomic indicators and relative interest rate expectations between the Eurozone and the United States.
This technical analysis examines the EUR/USD pair’s recent developments, key support and resistance zones, and the macro factors shaping its direction.
Overview of Recent EUR/USD Price Action
– Over the past two weeks, the EUR/USD pair has rendered several failed attempts to sustain upward moves.
– Last week, the pair fell to lows near 1.0650 despite a brief push toward the 1.0700 zone.
– Selling pressure intensified after the pair failed to hold above the 1.0730 resistance level.
– The recent Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) communications have influenced traders’ expectations for monetary policy divergence, impacting EUR/USD movements.
– As of early November 4, 2025, the pair has settled near the 1.0670 level, suggesting a continuation of bearish sentiment unless key resistance levels are broken.
Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
– 1.0635: A crucial short-term support zone. A break below this area could trigger further declines toward recent multi-week lows.
– 1.0580: Deeper support level reflecting a previous long-term base. Failure to hold this point would enhance the bearish outlook.
Resistance Levels:
– 1.0730: Immediate resistance. The market has tested this level multiple times in recent sessions but failed to maintain upward momentum.
– 1.0780: A more robust resistance, coinciding with the 200-day moving average and previous swing highs.
– 1.0835: An important psychological and technical resistance, also aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels of last quarter’s downward move.
Technical Indicators and Patterns
– Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently trending near the 40 mark on the daily timeframe, suggesting bearish bias but not yet reaching oversold territory. This could leave room for further declines.
– Moving Averages: The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) lies below the 200-day SMA, forming a “death cross,” often viewed as a longer-term bearish sign.
– Trendline Analysis: A downward sloping trendline from September highs continues to cap gains in EUR/USD, currently intersecting near the 1.0780 resistance.
– MACD Indicator: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory, reinforcing selling pressure.
Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors
Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are impacting EUR/USD pricing dynamics.
1. Diverging Monetary Policy Paths
– The Federal Reserve has maintained a comparatively hawkish tone, keeping its policy rate elevated to manage persistent inflation.
– The recent FOMC meeting supported holding interest rates steady but signaled reluctance to begin cutting rates anytime soon.
– In contrast, the ECB has expressed concern about the waning growth trajectory in the euro area and has hinted that future hikes are unlikely.
– This divergence has strengthened the US dollar at the euro’s expense, contributing to EUR/USD downside momentum.
2. Eurozone Economic Weakness
– Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, reported weaker-than-expected industrial production figures for September and early October.
– Services and manufacturing PMI readings across the region continue to remain below the expansion threshold of 50.
– The slowdown in key economic sectors puts pressure on the ECB to ease policy, which supports a bearish view on the euro.
– Inflation in the euro area has moderated, further justifying the ECB’s dovish tilt.
3. US Economic Resilience
– The US labor market remains historically strong
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