**Adapted from an article originally published by Matthew Weller on Forex.com**
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# 153 Remains Pivotal for USD/JPY; AUD/USD Stabilizes Amid Wall Street Rebound
The foreign exchange market has been experiencing notable movements lately, with major currency pairs responding to macroeconomic data, central bank guidance, and broader market sentiment. The USD/JPY exchange rate is consolidating near a crucial resistance level of 153.00, while AUD/USD has found some stability following a rebound in risk appetite across Wall Street.
Below is an in-depth look at key developments influencing USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs, technical interpretations, and insights on how market dynamics might play out in the short term.
## USD/JPY Approaches Historic Resistance Near 153.00
The USD/JPY pair has seen a strong bullish run in recent weeks, and it is now testing a major resistance zone around 153.00 — a level that is particularly noteworthy for both technical and fundamental reasons.
### Critical Factors Behind USD/JPY Movement
– **Bank of Japan Policy Shift**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) implemented a policy shift last month, bringing short-term interest rates marginally above zero. This marked the end of its prolonged negative interest rate regime.
– **Limited Yen Appreciation**: Despite the BoJ’s policy change, the Japanese yen has failed to significantly strengthen against the US dollar. This is largely due to:
– The Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively hawkish outlook
– Strong US economic data supporting further strength in the greenback
– **Intervention Speculation**: Japanese authorities closely monitor the yen’s value and have previously intervened in the markets near this level. This has raised the possibility of similar measures should the pair extend its rally beyond 153.00.
### Technical Outlook for USD/JPY
– USD/JPY is consolidating just below 153.00, which acts as a double resistance:
– **Historical Resistance**: The pair was capped at this level in October 2022 and April 2023.
– **Psychological Threshold**: The round number nature of 153.00 adds to its importance.
– Bullish momentum remains intact, but traders are wary of potential intervention or profit-taking at this level.
– **Indicators to Watch**:
– RSI has approached overbought territory, hinting at potential pullback risks.
– MACD remains positive, confirming the trend’s underlying strength.
– **Support Zones**:
– 151.50: Recent short-term support area, could serve as the first defense for bulls
– 149.00: A break below this level could trigger a more substantial retracement
– **Upside Targets**:
– A firm break above 153.00 would open potential for rallies toward 155.00 or even 157.00 in the coming months if no policy intervention occurs.
## Market Sentiment and the Yen
Across Tokyo and currency desks globally, traders are watching carefully for any signs of verbal or actual intervention from Japanese authorities.
– **Ministry of Finance (MoF) Involvement**:
– Japanese Finance Ministry officials have commented in the past when the yen depreciated more than they deemed acceptable.
– Intervention in 2022 and 2023 took place around current levels. Markets are nervous about a repeat.
– **Cross-Asset Correlations**:
– USD/JPY tends to rise when US interest rates rise or equity markets rally, reflecting carry trade interest.
– A shift in stock market risk appetite may cause sudden moves in either direction for the pair.
## AUD/USD Consolidates as Risk Appetite Rebounds
The Australian dollar saw stabilization after recent weakness, as investor confidence in global risk assets strengthened. Wall Street’s robust performance provided a firmer footing for AUD/USD, even as domestic fundamentals in Australia remain subdued.
### Factors Supporting AUD/USD Stabilization
– **Recovery in
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