The following article is a rewritten version of the original analysis published by DailyForex.com on November 6, 2025, authored by Christopher Lewis. This revised version maintains the central insights, elaborates on key technical aspects, and expands upon the forecast to exceed 1000 words for deeper context and comprehension.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Forecast – November 6, 2025
By Christopher Lewis | Sourced from DailyForex.com
Overview
The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward momentum, hovering near multi-decade highs as of the first week of November 2025. The strength of the US dollar, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, coupled with the Bank of Japan’s continued commitment to ultra-loose financial conditions, has created a favorable environment for further appreciation in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In this comprehensive technical outlook, we explore key levels, technical patterns, and fundamental drivers that suggest this bull trend may remain intact—albeit with potential retracement risks on the horizon.
Key Themes Shaping USD/JPY
Several macroeconomic and policy developments are influencing the direction of the USD/JPY pair. Understanding these underlying themes is essential to anticipate future moves in the currency market.
• Fed Monetary Policy Outlook:
– The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a hawkish tone, with interest rates remaining above the 5 percent mark.
– This is intended to counteract persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy.
– As yields on U.S. Treasury securities remain elevated, the demand for the U.S. dollar increases, drawing foreign capital and investors.
– The tight monetary stance supports a stronger USD, placing upward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
• Bank of Japan’s Stance:
– The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a dovish approach, with negative or near-zero interest rates still in effect despite some domestic inflation.
– Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated the need to maintain stimulus until inflation sustainably exceeds 2 percent with wage growth.
– The BoJ continues its yield curve control (YCC) program, limiting the rise in Japanese bond yields.
– This divergence from the Fed’s strategy weakens the yen and furthers dollar dominance in the pair.
• Global Risk Sentiment:
– USD/JPY has historically responded to shifts in global risk appetite. When markets are in risk-on mode, the yen tends to depreciate as capital flows into higher-yielding assets.
– With ongoing geopolitical instability and uncertainty in markets about recession probabilities, the USD maintains its safe-haven appeal stronger than the JPY.
• Technical Momentum:
– The pair is currently exhibiting strong bullish technical signals across various short and long-term timeframes.
– Momentum indicators support continued upside, though overbought conditions suggest caution may be warranted in the near term.
Current Price Structure
As of the most recent trading sessions leading into November 6, 2025, the USD/JPY pair is trading just below the 152.00 level. Traders are increasingly attentive to this psychological barrier, as history has proven it a critical point in determining future price action.
• Key resistance: 152.00
• Immediate support: 150.00
• Minor support zones: 149.00 and 147.50
• 200-day EMA: rising and currently positioned around 144.00
Technical Indicators in Focus
• Moving Averages:
– The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is trending sharply upward and sits well above the 200-day EMA, confirming the strength of the bullish trend.
– Price continues to hold convincingly above both EMAs, reinforcing the overall upward momentum.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
– At current levels, the RSI on the daily chart stands around 68 to 70, close to overbought territory.
– While this doesn’t mandate a reversal, it does indicate that some consolidation or
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