Title: EUR/USD Outlook: Upside Momentum Lacks Follow-Through Near Mid-1.1500s
Author: Written by FXStreet Team | Adapted with credit by Forex Crunch
The EUR/USD pair has maintained a sluggish tone despite efforts to rally in the early European trading session on Thursday, November 7, 2025. The currency pair faced rejection near the mid-1.1500 region and pulled back, struggling to find any strong buying interest. This apparent lack of follow-through momentum on the upside highlights a broader hesitation among market participants amid mixed economic signals from both the Eurozone and the United States. Below is an in-depth analysis of the current EUR/USD outlook, key driving forces, and possible future directions.
Current Price Action:
– EUR/USD attempted to reverse its earlier losses but faced rejection near the 1.1550 mark.
– The pair stayed capped below this pivot level and is now hovering near the psychological handle of 1.1500.
– Price movement remains confined to a tight range as investors digest recent economic releases and await market-moving data later this week.
Market Sentiment and Driving Factors:
Dollar Strength Remains a Key Factor
– The US Dollar (USD) has maintained a relatively firm tone amidst renewed demand for safe-haven assets.
– A persistent bid in US Treasury yields is supporting the Greenback, particularly the benchmark 10-year US yield, which remains elevated near recent highs.
– Optimistic language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his latest remarks has reinforced expectations of prolonged higher interest rates in the United States.
– Market consensus appears to be leaning toward no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the second half of 2026.
Mixed Eurozone Fundamentals
– The Euro (EUR) is weighed down by signs of continued economic weakness across the Eurozone.
– Germany, the engine of the Eurozone, remains mired in slow growth, with recent data showing a contraction in industrial production and weaker private sector activity.
– The European Central Bank (ECB) has offered a largely neutral stance, with few indications of imminent monetary policy changes.
– Dismissal of rate hikes and a cautious outlook on inflation have contributed to the lack of investor confidence in the EUR.
ECB vs. Fed Policy Divergence
– Central bank divergence continues to act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.
– The ECB appears to be on pause mode, possibly contemplating rate cuts in 2026.
– Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has retained its hawkish language, keeping the door open for further tightening if necessary.
– This divergence creates a positive backdrop for the USD over the EUR, limiting the EUR/USD pair’s bullish potential.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels:
– Immediate resistance appears near the 1.1550 level, which has capped the pair’s upside attempts recently.
– A decisive break above 1.1550 could open the door for moves towards the 1.1600 level.
– Further resistance lies near the September highs around 1.1650.
Support Levels:
– The psychological 1.1500 level continues to act as immediate support.
– A break below this could expose the next strong support near 1.1470.
– Deeper losses may find a floor near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1440.
Technical Indicators:
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral near 50, suggesting a lack of directional momentum.
– Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flatlining, confirming the consolidative structure.
– Price action remains stuck between the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, reinforcing the range-bound movement.
Upcoming Events to Watch:
Investors are keeping a close eye on several upcoming macroeconomic releases that could bring fresh directional momentum to the EUR/USD pair. Key events include:
United States:
– Initial Jobless Claims: Set for release later today, traders will assess the strength of the US labor market.
– Consumer Price Index
Read more on EUR/USD trading.