**AUD/USD Weekly Technical Report and Outlook**
*Source: Original analysis adapted from Action Forex. Additional market insights integrated for a comprehensive perspective.*
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### Overview
The AUD/USD currency pair’s performance in recent sessions has highlighted significant shifts tied to both technical patterns and underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. Against the backdrop of fluctuating global risk sentiment, variable commodity prices, and evolving expectations for central bank actions, the Australian dollar has faced considerable volatility against the US dollar. This extended analysis will delve into the technical outlook, underlying fundamentals, recent price movements, and forecasts for the AUD/USD pair, while integrating insights from other reputable forex research sources.
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### Recent Price Performance
– **Substantial Pullback:** The Aussie had shown signs of recovery but faced a sharp setback last week, falling through critical support levels, reflecting renewed strength in the US dollar and a reassertion of risk aversion across global financial markets.
– **Support Violation:** The pair closed below the 0.6600 psychological barrier, which had previously held as a key support level and catalyst for bullish momentum.
– **Week’s Range:** The currency traded within a relatively wide range, underscoring increased volatility linked to fluctuations in US Treasury yields and market speculation around the timing and strategy for rate cuts from major central banks.
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### Technical Analysis: Short-term and Medium-term Outlook
#### **Short-term Technical Signals**
– **Bearish Reversal Confirmed:** The breakdown below 0.6600 supports a short-term bearish bias, with the pair entering a consolidative phase that has the potential to further test the 0.6520–0.6460 support zone.
– **Momentum Indicators:**
– Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings have turned south, reflecting renewed downward momentum but avoiding oversold conditions.
– MACD has registered a bearish crossover, supporting expectations of continued downward pressure unless a sharp reversal takes place.
– **Near-term Resistance:** Initial resistance is now found near the 0.6610–0.6630 band, confluent with former support levels and the 20-day moving average.
#### **Medium-term Technical Structure**
– **Trendline Dynamics:** Despite the recent downside, the pair remains above a critical trendline extending from last year’s lows, signaling that medium-term bullish aspirations are not fully invalidated.
– **Fibonacci Retracement Levels:**
– The current decline is retracing part of the rally from April’s 0.6360 low to the recent peak of 0.6713.
– The 38.2% retracement aligns around 0.6600, while the 50% and 61.8% levels at 0.6536 and 0.6475 respectively have historically provided strong price reactions.
– **Bollinger Bands Squeeze:** A tightening of Bollinger Bands suggests a potential breakout as volatility compresses, typically preceding notable directional moves.
#### **Weekly Chart**
– **Broader Range Trade:**
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